BMIE Market 85208
Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 37,225 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,333 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 15,271 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±746 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 34,762 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 18,657 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $69,390 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,010 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 46.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,631 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $286,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,294 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 8.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85208 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 6.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -4.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +4.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 24 (range 22–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85208. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 74.2 | 74 | 40% | +29.7 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 56.9 | 57 | 35% | +19.9 |
| Market Momentum Score | 24.1 | 24 | 25% | +6.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 37,225 | 93 | 40% | +37.1 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 69,390 | 46 | 40% | +18.4 |
| Households (ACS) | 15,271 | 94 | 20% | +18.7 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -4 | 21 | 35% | +7.5 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 6.5 | 86 | 25% | +21.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 37,225 | 93 | 20% | +18.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 69,390 | 46 | 20% | +9.2 |
Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -7.7 | 20 | 50% | +10.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -4 | 21 | 30% | +6.4 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 4.4 | 37 | 20% | +7.4 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (32)
By cuisine
American 5 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Chinese 3 · Coffee 3 · Mexican 2 · Steakhouse 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Quick service 13 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 5 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birdies Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 500 S 80th St | open | |
| Carrabba's Italian Grill Carrabba's Italian Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Steakhouse | 1740 S Clearview Ave | open |
| Different Smokes BBQ Food Truck | Food truck | BBQ · American | 845 S Crismon Rd | open |
| Dollar Blaze Club | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 207 S 98th St | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 6920 E Baseline Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 1116 S Crismon Rd | open |
| El Gordo Real Mexican Grill El Gordo Mexican Grill | Quick service | Mexican | 8461 E Broadway Rd | open |
| FairyDust Cupcakes | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 10434 E Balsam Ave | open |
| For the Love of Sourdough: A Desert Organic Sourdough House | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 808 S Revolta Cir | open |
| Handel's Homemade Ice Cream Handel's Homemade Ice Cream | Dessert · Bar | Dessert | 1361 South Signal Butte Road, Mesa, Arizona 85209 | open |
| Hungry Howie's Hungry Howie's | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 1116 S. Crismon Rd. #101 | open |
| Jack in the Box | Quick service | 9147 E Broadway Rd | open | |
| Kneaders Bakery and Cafe Kneaders Bakery and Cafe | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Coffee · American | 1142 S Signal Butte Rd | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 439 S Ellsworth Rd | open |
| Lotus Garden Chinese Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 439 S Ellsworth Rd | open |
| Luna Street Tacos After 6pm | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 9205 E Main St | open |
| Mr Brews Taphouse Mr Brews Taphouse - Appleton/Darboy | Casual dining · Bar | Burgers · American | 1113 S Signal Butte Rd | open |
| Nature's Own Bakery Outlet | Bakery | Bakery | 10107 E Apache Trail | open |
| Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 1650 S Clearview Ave | open |
| Panda Express Panda Express México | Quick service | Chinese · Asian | 1959 South Power Rd. Space#107 | open |
| Panda Express Panda Express México | Quick service | Chinese · Asian | 9115 E. Baseline Rd SUITE 108 SUITE 108 | open |
| Peter Piper Pizza Peter Piper Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 9047 E Baseline Rd | open |
| Power & Broadway Salad and Go | Quick service | 251 S Power Rd, Mesa, AZ 85206 | open | |
| Sam's Famous Subs | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 6807 E Broadway Rd | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 435 S Ellsworth Rd | open |
| Stephens Biker Bar | Bar | American | 8006 E 5th Ave | open |
| Steve's Krazy Sub | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1752 S Signal Butte Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 450 S Sossaman Suite 101 | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 439 South Ellsworth Road Suite 104 | open |
| Taco Bell | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1125 S Signal Butte Rd | open | |
| Thrifty Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1116 S Crismon Rd Ste 102 | open |
| Yogurt Kingdom | Dessert | Dessert | 1113 S Signal Butte Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 8 | 8 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 15 | 15 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 17 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 17 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 25 | 23 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 26 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 29 | 28 | 9 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 32 | 31 | 9 | 19 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 35 | 34 | 10 | 22 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 30 | 29 | 7 | 20 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 29 | 29 | 7 | 20 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 25 | 25 | 6 | 17 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 25 | 22 | 6 | 14 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 14 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 26 | 25 | 5 | 16 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 27 | 26 | 6 | 14 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 27 | 26 | 6 | 16 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 27 | 26 | 6 | 16 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 27 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 30 | 27 | 5 | 18 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 29 | 26 | 4 | 18 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 26 | 23 | 4 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2022 |