BMIE Market 85266

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,516 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,218 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,546 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±399 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,406 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,232 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$151,923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,485 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	62.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,136 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±490 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,128,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78,588 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85266
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+1,100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,100.0% DERIVED: 1997 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 4–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85266. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.3	83	40%	+33.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.3	57	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	66.5	67	25%	+16.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,516	74	40%	+29.6
Median household income (ACS)	151,923	96	40%	+38.5
Households (ACS)	5,546	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.6	74	25%	+18.4
Population (ACS)	12,516	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	151,923	96	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	1,100	100	20%	+19.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 5 · Café 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bad Donkey	Other	Sandwiches	34250 N 60th St	open
Ben & Jerry's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	34505 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Blu Burger Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Burgers · Sandwiches · American	32409 N Scottsdale Rd	open
cherry on top Cherry On Top	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	32421 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Cibo e Vino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	34522 N Scottsdale rd. She D1	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	32409 North Scottsdale Rd Suite 105	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	34422 N Scottsdale Rd, Ste 110-113	open
GI Joe Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	6489 E Shooting Star Way	open
Hacienda's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		32527 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Handel's Homemade Ice Cream Handel's Homemade Ice Cream - York, PA	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	31309 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Hecho A Mano Cigar Lounge	Bar		34482 N Scottsdale Rd Ste 130	open
La Cocina - Authentic Mexican Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	32527 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Legacy Enterprise Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		32409 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Liberty Station Liberty Station Madison	Casual dining · Bar	American	34522 N Scottsdale Rd #180	open
Munch Box	Food truck · Catering · Café	Coffee		open
My Sweet Blessings Bakery and Bistro	Bakery	Bakery	34250 N 60th St	open
North Scottsdale Bar and NightClub Scene	Bar		32500 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Palo Verde Restaurant At The Boulders Resort	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · American	34631 N Tom Darlington Dr	open
Patricia's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	32607 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Pei Wei Asian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	32607 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Poppy's Office	Bar		34522 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Rubio's Coastal Grill Rubio's	Quick service	Mexican	32415 N Scottsdale Rd Suite C	open
SCOTTSDALE - N. Scottsdale & Ashler Hills - #152 Rubio's	Quick service		32415 North Scottsdale Road Suite C	open
Sesame Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	34482 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Spotted Donkey Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	34505 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	31317 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	34442 N Scottsdale Rd.	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	34522 N Scottsdale Rd Ste 130	open
Summit Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	32531 N Scottsdale Rd	open
The Bourbon Cellar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	32409 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Truffles North Scottsdale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	32527 N Scottsdale Rd	open
World of Sourdough Scottsdale 32421 N Scottsdale Rd	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Bakery	32421 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Pei Wei Asian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	32607 N Scottsdale Rd Ste 107	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	6	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	2	3	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	16	15	10	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	16	16	10	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	9	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	14	10	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	13	8	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	9	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85266. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85377	4.2 mi	7	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.