BMIE Market 85377

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±226 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,714 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,051 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,017 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$149,167 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,849 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	64.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,538 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±311 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,077,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±80,842 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85377
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	36.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 3–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85377. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.9	72	40%	+28.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.7	44	35%	+15.3
Market Momentum Score	23.6	24	25%	+5.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,437	54	40%	+21.8
Median household income (ACS)	149,167	96	40%	+38.4
Households (ACS)	1,714	59	20%	+11.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-22.2	13	35%	+4.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.4	36	25%	+9.1
Population (ACS)	3,437	54	20%	+10.9
Median household income (ACS)	149,167	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-30	9	50%	+4.5
10-year restaurant growth	-22.2	13	30%	+3.9
20-year restaurant growth	75	76	20%	+15.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 5 · Italian 4 · European 3 · Burgers 2 · Greek 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 7 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 3 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Athens on Easy Street	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	121 Easy St	open
Black Mountain Cafe & Lounge	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	7211 E Ho Rd	open
Bogey's at The Boulders Club	Bar		34631 N Tom Darlington Dr	open
Brix Wines	Bar		37636 N. Tom Darlington Drive	open
Carefree Coffee Roastery	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	7171 E Cave Creek Rd	open
Carefree Psychological Services, P.l.l.c	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11 E Sundial Cir	open
Carefree Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7212 E Ho Hum Rd	open
Celestial Artisan Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		100 Easy St	open
Confluence	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	36889 N Tom Darlington Dr	open
Corrado's Cucina Italiana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	100 Easy St, Cave Creek, Arizona 85331, United States	open
Discovery Lounge	Bar	Burgers	34631 N Tom Darlington Dr	open
Elysian Desert Distilleries	Winery / distillery / taproom		100 Easy St	open
English Rose Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	201 Easy St	open
Giordano Trattoria Romana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	7275 Easy St	open
Keeler's Neighborhood Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	7212 Ho Hum Dr	open
Lara Bistro	Bar		37555 N Hum Rd	open
My Pool Gal, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36889 N Tom Darlington Dr	open
Pizzafarro's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	36889 N Tom Darlington Dr	open
Pizzicata Carefree Pizzeria Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	7212 East Ho, N Hum Rd	open
Saba's Mediterranean Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	37555 N Hum Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	36889 N Tom Darlington Dr	open
Sticks Cigar Lounge	Bar		37555 N Hum Road Corner Of Cavecreek Rd &, Hum Rd	open
Sundial Garden Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Sandwiches	7 E Sundial Cir	open
Terras at CIVANA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	37220 Mule Train Rd	open
The Healthy Creek	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	37555 N Hum Rd Ste 105	open
Tox Bar Lounge	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	100 Easy St	open
True To Bean	Coffee shop	Coffee	37555 N Hum Rd	open
Venues Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	34 Easy St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	10	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	9	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	7	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	9	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	8	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	9	8	8	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	8	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	6	6	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	12	11	9	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	11	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	12	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	11	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85377. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85266	4.2 mi	12	2023
85331	4.5 mi	69	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.