BMIE Market 85268

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	23,849 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±71 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,073 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±565 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,684 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,281 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$112,795 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,399 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	61.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±142 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$623,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,228 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	44 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85268
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	21.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+4.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+7.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+131.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	47 (range 41–53) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	32 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85268. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.4	86	40%	+34.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.1	62	35%	+21.8
Market Momentum Score	31.7	32	25%	+7.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	23,849	84	40%	+33.8
Median household income (ACS)	112,795	88	40%	+35.1
Households (ACS)	11,073	87	20%	+17.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	4.8	50	35%	+17.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.5	41	25%	+10.4
Population (ACS)	23,849	84	20%	+16.9
Median household income (ACS)	112,795	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10.2	18	50%	+9.2
10-year restaurant growth	4.8	50	30%	+14.9
20-year restaurant growth	7.3	38	20%	+7.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (94)

By cuisine

American 21 · Coffee 14 · Pizza 10 · Asian 7 · Italian 7 · Mexican 7 · Breakfast 5 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · European 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Greek 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Japanese 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Sushi 2 · Thai 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Korean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 54 · Bar 18 · Café 13 · Casual dining 13 · Quick service 12 · Coffee shop 6 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Other 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Gorenca & 2 Sons Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16650 E Palisades Blvd Ste 100	open
A&W Restaurant	Quick service		16805 E Shea Blvd	open
Aguamenti	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	16842 E Parkview Ave	open
Alamo Saloon	Bar		11807 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Alexander's Greek Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	13014 N Saguaro Blvd	open
All American Sports Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	16872 E Ave of the Fountains	open
Appian Way	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	17149 E Amhurst Dr	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	17224 E Shea Blvd	open
Arrivederci Cucina Italiana	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	12645 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Batchelor's Pad BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	13407 N La Montana Dr	open
Blackman's Southwest Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar			open
Blossom Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	14835 E Shea Blvd	open
Bone Haus Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		14825 E Shea Blvd	open
Boulevard Cafe	Café	Coffee	16848 E Avenue of the Fountains	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	13725 N Fountain Hills Blvd	open
Cafe Bliss	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	16425 E Palisades Blvd #101	open
Chocofin Chocolatier	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	13404 N La Montana Dr	open
Cielo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · European	13225 N Eagle Ridge Dr	open
Cliff's Midnite Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	420 Meat st	open
Crowning Glory Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	16733 E Palisades Blvd	open
DC Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	American	10440 N Indian Wells Dr	open
DéNü Café	Café	Coffee	12015 N Saguaro Blvd Ste 102	open
Desert Decanter Wine Bar	Bar		9800 N Summer Hill Blvd	open
DJ's Bagel Café	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · Breakfast	13693 N Fountain Hills Blvd	open
Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	16760 E Palisades Blvd	open
El Encanto de la Fuente El Encanto Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11044 N Saguaro Blvd #5540	open
Euro Cafe Pizza & Bar	Casual dining · Café · Bar	Pizza · Coffee	12625 N Saguaro Blvd Ste 101	open
FHHS Falcon Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	16100 E Palisades Blvd	open
Filiberto's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	16225 E Palisades Blvd	open
Fireside Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	12800 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Flapjacks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	16605 E Palisades Blvd	open
Fountain Hills Food Cart	Food truck · Quick service	American	16720 E Ave of the Fountains	open
Four Peaks Vista, Fountain Hills, Arizona	Quick service			open
Georgies Diner Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13407 N La Montana Dr	open
Georgie’s	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	16725 E Ave of the Fountains	open
Grapeables Wine Bar & Lounge	Bar		12645 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Haan Korean BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Burgers · BBQ · Asian · American	17149 E Amhurst Dr	open
Hao Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	11849 N Saguaro Blvd	open
HD Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	16740 E Palisades Blvd #107	open
La Mai Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	12015 N Saguaro Blvd	open
La Scala Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12645 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Lawrence Dunham Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		13771 N Fountain Hills Blvd	open
Little Caesars Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	16605 E Palisades Blvd	open
Made It Myself Workshop	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	11827 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Maskadores Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	16754 E Glenbrook Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	16936 E Shea Blvd	open
Mojo's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	16726 E El Pueblo Blvd	open
Mountain View Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	16605 E Palisades Blvd	open
MPJ's Grill and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15225 N Fountain Hills Blvd Ste 104	open
Munich Gyros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	16948 E Shea Blvd	open
Oka Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	16725 E Ave of the Fountains R104	open
OYO Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12645 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13525 N Fountain Hills Blvd	open
Papayaz	Juice, smoothie, tea	Breakfast · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	16845 E Avenue of the Fountains	open
Parkview Tap House	Casual dining · Bar		16828 E Parkview Ave	open
Phil's Filling Station	Casual dining · Bar	American	16852 E Parkview Ave	open
Pietro's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	9800 N Summer Hill Blvd	open
Ping's Cafe	Café	Chinese · Coffee · Asian	17115 E Shea Blvd	open
Pisa Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	16650 E Palisades Blvd	open
Pita House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14835 E Shea Blvd	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Que Bueno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	13207 N La Montana Dr	open
Rainbow Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	17224 E Shea Blvd	open
Redendo's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	16948 E Shea Blvd	open
Robs Sports Bar and Grill	Bar		16737 E Parkview Ave	open
Rosati's Pizza Rosati's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12605 N Saguaro Blvd #4	open
Rosati's Pizza Enterprises	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	16847 E Parkview Ave Ste 204	open
Saddle Bronc Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	11056 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Sapori D'Italia	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	11865 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Senor Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	16948 E Shea Blvd	open
Senor Taco 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	13525 N Fountain Hills Blvd Ste 101	open
Siculi Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11865 N Saguaro Blvd	open
Skybox Ultra Sports Lounge	Bar		16737 E Parkview Ave	open
Snowbird Ice Cream Co	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	16725 E Ave of the Fountains	open
Sofrita	Bar	Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other)	16848 E Ave of the Fountains	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	16425 E Palisades Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	16825 E Shea Blvd	open
Streets of New York Streets of New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	16841 E Shea Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	13771 Fountain Hills Blvd Suite 113	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	16841 E Shea Blvd Ste 1-103	open
Sun Baked Food 4 The Soul	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · American	16842 E Parkview Ave #1	open
The Epicurean Club - Private Speakeasy	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		11803 N Saguaro Blvd	open
The Grille At Eagle Mountain	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining · Bar			open
The Meltdown	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Mexican	17053 E Shea Blvd	open
Vu Bistro	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		14815 E Shea Blvd, 14815 E Shea Blvd	open
Waters Edge Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13014 N Saguaro Blvd Ste 101	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	17218 E Shea Blvd	open
Wicked Six Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13100 N Sunridge Dr	open
Wingstreet Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	13693 N Fountain Hills Blvd	open
Zab Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	16720 E Ave of the Fountains	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	13733 Fountain Hills Blvd	open
Broetsky Foods Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13235 N Verde River Dr PMB 201	closed
Mountain View Thai Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	12645 N Saguaro Blvd	closed
Octagon Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	12645 N Saguaro Blvd Ste 1	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	26	25	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	29	27	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	29	27	14	12	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	26	23	13	10	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	21	16	10	5	1	4	NAICS1997
2001	26	22	12	8	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	42	37	22	12	3	4	NAICS1997
2003	44	41	27	11	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	43	40	26	10	4	1	NAICS2002
2005	45	43	25	12	6	1	NAICS2002
2006	44	40	24	10	6	2	NAICS2002
2007	51	48	30	11	7	2	NAICS2002
2008	50	45	24	14	7	3	NAICS2007
2009	56	52	28	17	7	2	NAICS2007
2010	53	49	25	18	6	2	NAICS2007
2011	51	47	21	20	6	3	NAICS2007
2012	48	45	22	18	5	2	NAICS2012
2013	45	42	21	15	6	2	NAICS2012
2014	48	43	24	13	6	4	NAICS2012
2015	45	41	21	14	6	3	NAICS2012
2016	52	48	26	15	7	3	NAICS2012
2017	51	46	27	14	5	4	NAICS2017
2018	54	49	32	12	5	4	NAICS2017
2019	52	47	29	13	5	4	NAICS2017
2020	49	44	27	12	5	4	NAICS2017
2021	53	48	29	14	5	4	NAICS2017
2022	47	42	27	12	3	3	NAICS2022
2023	50	44	25	15	4	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85268. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85259	4.2 mi	34	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.