BMIE Market 85737

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	22,785 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,065 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,887 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±482 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,727 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,633 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,914 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,757 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$469,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,517 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	41 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85737
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+70.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+272.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	46 (range 43–49) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85737. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.6	85	40%	+33.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.8	67	35%	+23.4
Market Momentum Score	64.9	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	22,785	84	40%	+33.4
Median household income (ACS)	107,348	85	40%	+34.1
Households (ACS)	9,887	85	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20.6	64	35%	+22.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.0	43	25%	+10.7
Population (ACS)	22,785	84	20%	+16.7
Median household income (ACS)	107,348	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.1	62	50%	+30.8
10-year restaurant growth	20.6	64	30%	+19.2
20-year restaurant growth	70.8	75	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (78)

By cuisine

Pizza 10 · American 9 · Mexican 9 · Sandwiches 9 · Coffee 8 · Italian 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · Chinese 4 · Breakfast 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 49 · Quick service 15 · Bar 8 · Café 8 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Other 4 · Casual dining 3 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baggin's Gourmet Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	11015 N Oracle Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10515 N Oracle Rd	open
Bloom Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	12115 N Oracle Rd	open
Blue Banana Frozen Yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12125 N Oracle Rd Ste 121	open
Breadsmith of Oro Valley Breadsmith	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	10355 N La Cañada Dr	open
Brueggers Bagels Bruegger's Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	11165 N La Cañada Dr Ste 161	open
Burger King	Quick service		10615 N Oracle Rd	open
Caffe Torino	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Coffee	10325 N La Cañada Dr	open
Carl's Jr.	Quick service		10535 N Oracle Rd	open
Carrabba's Italian Grill Carrabba's Italian Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	7635 N Oracle Rd	open
Charred Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12125 N Oracle Rd #105	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11065 N. Oracle Rd.	open
China Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	10110 N Oracle Rd #180	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	10604 N Oracle Rd	open
Ciao Down Pizza Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10565 N Oracle Rd #111	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	10420 La Canada Drive #140	open
Dragon Village Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	12152 N Rancho Vistoso Blvd Ste 180	open
El Burrito Patio Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10420 N La Canada Dr	open
El Molinito Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10180 N Oracle Rd	open
El Rey Corp Dba Goyitas	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10420 N La Canada Dr Ste 180	open
Filiberto's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10535 N Oracle Rd	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Breakfast · Coffee	10565 N Oracle Rd.	open
Fork and Fire Smokehouse and Taproom	Bar	BBQ	11835 N Oracle Rd #101	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	11143 N Oracle Rd	open
Fruit Shack	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	10785 N Oracle Rd #143	open
Fruit Shack Smoothies & Yogurt	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	10785 N Oracle Rd Ste 143	open
Full Circle Holdings Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11165 N La Canada Dr	open
GMG Chinese Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	10370 N La Canada Dr #190	open
Gyros Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	11143 N La Canada Dr	open
Happy Joe's Pizza - Oro Valley Happy Joe's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11695 N Oracle Rd	open
Harvest Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10355 N La Cañada Dr #141	open
Haus of Brats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	10901 N Oracle Rd	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11065 N. Oracle Rd.	open
Jb Restaurants Iv Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10550 N La Canada Dr	open
Jerry Bob's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	10550 N La Cañada Dr #140	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10592 N Oracle Rd	open
Just Kabab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	10420 N La Canada Dr	open
Kneaders Bakery and Cafe (Oro Valley, AZ) Kneaders Bakery and Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	135 South Wilmot Road	open
La Hacienda Family Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11931 N 1st Ave	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10550 N La Canada Dr, Ste 190	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10795 N Oracle Rd	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	10580 N Oracle Rd #150	open
Native Grill & Wings	Bar		11107 N Oracle Rd	open
Nautical Bowls Nautical Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	10515 N Oracle Rd	open
Nico's Mexican Food Nico’s Taco Shop Oracle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11165 N La Cañada Dr	open
Noble Hops Noble Hops Gastropub	Casual dining · Bar		1335 W Lambert Ln	open
Noy’S Tuk Tuk Thai Oro Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	12125 N Oracle Rd	open
Olive Garden Italian Restaurant Olive Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	11905 N Oracle Rd	open
ORO VALLEY - #101 Rubio's	Quick service		10509 North Oracle Road	open
OV Pizza and Pints zpizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	11165 N La Cañada Dr	open
P.F. Chang's China Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	E River Walk Dr	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	10604 N Oracle Road	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10785 N Oracle Rd	open
Papa Murphy's \| Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10370 North La Canada Drive	open
Peachwave Tucson	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	12125 N Oracle Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10605 N Oracle Rd	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	10785 N Oracle Rd Ste 167	open
Red Lobster	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	11695 N Oracle Rd	open
Risky Business Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10515 N Oracle Rd	open
Rubio's Coastal Grill Rubio's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10509 N Oracle Rd	open
Sakura Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	12125 N Oracle Rd Ste 105	open
Savaya Coffee Market - at Steam Pump Savaya Coffee Market	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	11177 N Oracle Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10661 N Oracle Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	10615 N Oracle Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10450 N La Cañada Dr	open
Street Taco and Beer Co.	Bar	Mexican	10785 N Oracle Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	11901 North 1st Ave Suite B 104	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10325 N. La Canada Dr. Suite 111	open
Sushi Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	10509 N Oracle Rd #131	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	10815 N Oracle Rd	open
The Keg Steakhouse + Bar - Oro Valley The Keg Steakhouse + Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	12005 N Oracle Rd	open
The Meltdown	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Mexican	11107 N Oracle Road	open
The Overlook	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	10555 N La Cañada Dr	open
Tyga Bites	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11165 N La Canada Dr Ste 130	open
Which Wich Superior Sandwiches	Other	Sandwiches	10565 N Oracle Rd Ste 111	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service		7939 N Oracle Rd	open
Goyita's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10420 N La Canada Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	18	17	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	19	14	5	8	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	21	17	6	9	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	7	9	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	26	24	11	11	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	25	22	8	11	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	26	24	10	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	23	21	8	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	28	27	13	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	27	25	11	10	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	30	28	15	10	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	34	32	15	11	6	—	NAICS2007
2011	35	33	15	10	8	—	NAICS2007
2012	34	32	15	10	7	1	NAICS2012
2013	35	34	17	11	6	—	NAICS2012
2014	35	34	19	10	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	34	34	18	10	6	—	NAICS2012
2016	35	35	19	11	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	39	39	18	14	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	39	39	19	15	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	40	40	19	16	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	43	42	19	18	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	38	38	15	18	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	41	40	17	18	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	42	41	18	18	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85737. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85755	4.2 mi	12	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.