BMIE Market 85746

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	42,835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,417 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,901 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±683 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	43,057 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	15,592 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,903 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,041 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,303 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±158 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$241,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,924 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	115.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	37 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85746
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+27.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+105.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+131.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	35 (range 30–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85746. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.8	75	40%	+29.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.7	72	35%	+25.1
Market Momentum Score	72.8	73	25%	+18.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	42,835	95	40%	+38.0
Median household income (ACS)	68,903	45	40%	+18.1
Households (ACS)	14,901	93	20%	+18.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	27.6	69	35%	+24.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.6	78	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	42,835	95	20%	+19.0
Median household income (ACS)	68,903	45	20%	+9.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.1	70	50%	+35.0
10-year restaurant growth	27.6	69	30%	+20.8
20-year restaurant growth	105.6	85	20%	+17.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (86)

By cuisine

Mexican 18 · American 13 · Burgers 8 · Coffee 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Pizza 6 · Chicken / wings 5 · Chinese 4 · Hot dogs 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Asian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Seafood 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegan 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 53 · Quick service 35 · Food truck 8 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Buffet 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alvaro Hot Dogs 2	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Hot dogs	4530 W Valencia Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1530 W Valencia Rd	open
Birrieria Los Toros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2195 W Drexel Rd	open
Blake's Lotaburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1600 W Valencia Rd	open
Bochas x Tacoson	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1645 W Valencia Rd	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	1390 West Irvington Road Riverfront Plaza	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1681 W Valencia Rd	open
Cafe Santa Rosa II	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1959 W San Xavier Rd	open
Caguamantas & Mariscos El Gonza	Food truck		4012 W Valencia Rd	open
Cahuamanta Y Mariscos Cajeme	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Seafood	2232 W Drexel Rd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	1691 W Valencia Rd	open
Carnitas Los Equipales	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5721 S Westover Ave	open
Casa Valencia Mexican Seafood, Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · Latin American (other)	1825 W Valencia Rd	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1640 W. Valencia Rd.	open
China Dragon Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1625 W Valencia Rd	open
China Olive	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1350 W Irvington Rd #100	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1955 W Valencia Rd	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	6550 S Midvale Park Rd 6550 S Midvale Park Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	3040 W. Valencia	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	1655 W Valencia Rd	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	1971 W Valencia Rd	open
Eegee's eegee's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2790 W Valencia Rd	open
El Bebos Street Tacos and Hot Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4012 W Valencia Rd	open
El Jefe Sonoran Hot Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	2620 W Valencia Rd	open
El KANO	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2800 W Los Reales Rd	open
El Perro Loco Hot Dogs	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	2770 W Valencia Rd	open
El SOPE LOKO	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5737 S Westover Ave	open
El Taco Rustico	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		5721 S Westover Ave	open
El Taco Tote	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1645 W Valencia Rd	open
EL-Kve HOT DOGS	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5602 S Mission Rd	open
Famous Sam's Sports Grill	Bar · Casual dining		3010 W Valencia Rd	open
Federico Salsa Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	2911 W Holladay St	open
Geronimo Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3342 W Valencia Rd	open
Golden Corral Golden Corral Buffet & Grill	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6385 S Midvale Park Rd	open
Grand Buffet	Buffet	Asian · Chinese	1690 W Valencia Rd	open
Guadalajara's Grill & Tequila Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1610 W Valencia Rd Ste 100	open
Havier family foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		1950 W San Xavier Rd	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1963 W Valencia Rd	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1640 W. Valencia Rd.	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		2985 W Valencia Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1710 W Valencia Rd Ste 120	open
Karichimaka Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	5252 S Mission Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2970 W Valencia Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1715 W Irvington Rd	open
La Casita De Molina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3220 W Valencia Rd	open
La Esperanza Taco Truck	Food truck	Mexican	4531 W Valencia Rd	open
La Michoacana Munchies & more	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2202 W Drexel RD	open
La Yaquesita Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6530 S Camino de Oeste	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1625 W Valencia Rd	open
Little Mexico Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Steakhouse	2851 W Valencia Rd	open
Los Mezquites Asadero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2326 W Drexel Rd	open
Mariscos Pescamar La Reyna de la Cahuamanta	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	5721 S Westover Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1650 W Valencia Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2990 W Valencia Rd	open
Mj's hotdogs	Food truck	Hot dogs		open
North Pole Gentlemen's Club	Bar		2502 W Vereda Azul	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	1606 W Valencia Rd	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1610 w valencia rd	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1710 West Valencia Road	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1865 W Valencia Rd	open
Pizza Patrón Pizza Patrón	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1785 W Valencia Rd Unit 143	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Polo's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2393 W Drexel Rd	open
Popoverz Indian Frybread	Food truck	Indian · American	2400 W Valencia Rd	open
Raising Cane's Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1830 West Valencia Road	open
S. Antojitos Salvadorenos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5721 S Westover Ave	open
Salud Oyster Bar & Grill	Bar		1825 W Valencia Rd	open
Shaved Ice Saloon	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2940 W Valencia Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1765 W Valencia Rd	open
Subway	Quick service		1710 W Valencia Rd Ste Midvale	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2955 W Valencia Rd Ste 101	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1620 W Valencia Rd	open
Taco Giro Taco Giro Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2750 W Valencia Rd	open
Taco's El Wero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Mexican	521 S Westover Ave	open
Tacos Y Hot Dog Whatachon	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1800 W Valencia Rd	open
Tania's Flour Tortillas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2856 W Drexel Rd	open
Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp	Quick service		1963 W Valencia Rd	open
The Vegan Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan · Vegetarian	4012 W Valencia Rd	open
Thee Ole Watering Hole	Bar		2503 W Vereda Azul	open
Tropical Shavings, LLC "Hawaiian Shave Ice"	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
Valencia Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1971 Valencia Rd	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1650 W Valencia Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1540 W Valencia Rd	open
Wienerschnitzel Hamburger Stand	Quick service	Burgers · American	1710 W Valencia Rd	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1710 W Valencia Rd Ste 500	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	16	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	19	16	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	20	18	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	23	20	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	23	18	8	10	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	26	21	10	11	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	28	24	10	14	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	28	23	9	14	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	26	22	9	13	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	23	18	5	12	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	21	18	5	12	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	24	20	6	13	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	25	20	5	13	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	28	24	9	12	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	30	29	12	14	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	30	28	10	15	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	34	32	12	17	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	32	31	12	16	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	31	29	10	16	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	31	29	10	16	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	37	32	13	16	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	32	29	10	15	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	36	32	11	16	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	38	35	12	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	36	33	11	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	36	33	11	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	32	30	10	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	33	30	10	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	32	11	17	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	39	37	12	21	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85746. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85757	4.5 mi	3	2022

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.