BMIE Market 85757

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,259 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,604 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,790 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±446 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,988 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,486 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$83,219 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,285 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$953 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$308,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,695 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2022 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2022 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85757
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2012 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2027	2 (range 0–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2008–2022 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85757. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2008–2022, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.1	75	40%	+30.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.7	59	35%	+20.5
Market Momentum Score	66.2	66	25%	+16.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,259	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	83,219	66	40%	+26.4
Households (ACS)	6,790	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	1.4	100	25%	+24.9
Population (ACS)	21,259	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	83,219	66	20%	+13.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	200	99	50%	+61.9
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+4.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 4 · Mexican 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Buffet 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abuelitas Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5655 W Valencia Rd	open
Ajo Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4873 W Ajo HWY	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4889 W Ajo Hwy Ste 105	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	4889 W Ajo Hwy 155	open
Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4873 W Ajo HWY	open
Festa Buffet	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	5655 W Valencia Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4960 W Ajo Hwy	open
Moby's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5655 W Valencia Rd	open
Mr. Toto's Red Street Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6470 S Camino Verde	open
Popovers y Tacos	Food truck · Quick service		5160 W Toroko Vampo	open
Prema Lounge	Bar		5655 W Valencia Rd	open
PY Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	5655 W Valencia Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	5655 W Valencia Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4633 W Ajo Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4889 W Ajo Hwy Suite 125	open
Sun Flower Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	7406 S Camino De Oeste	open
Tiny's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	4900 W Ajo Hwy	open
Ume Asian and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5655 W Valencia Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2006	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2021	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85757. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85746	4.5 mi	37	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.