BMIE Market 85749

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,843 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,490 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,853 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±472 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,032 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,348 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$109,219 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	54.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,547 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±126 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$590,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,348 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	48.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85749
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 11–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	42 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85749. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.9	83	40%	+33.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.8	71	35%	+24.8
Market Momentum Score	41.8	42	25%	+10.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,843	80	40%	+32.2
Median household income (ACS)	109,219	86	40%	+34.5
Households (ACS)	7,853	81	20%	+16.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	35%	+17.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.5	78	25%	+19.6
Population (ACS)	18,843	80	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	109,219	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	30%	+15.3
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 8 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 4 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Italian 2 · Steakhouse 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Casual dining 7 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Quick service 5 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bear Canyon Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8987 E Tanque Verde Rd #335	open
Crossroads Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	8898 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8955 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8963 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Eegee's eegee's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8906 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Fortunato's Italian Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	9100 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Global Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	9105 E Tanque Verde Rd Ste 103	open
Great American Steakburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Steakhouse	8995 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Grills Gone Wild World Headquarters	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar		5450 N Sabino Highlands Place	open
Hillhouse Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	8991 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Howdy Juicy	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	9105 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Irish Pub	Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food · American	9155 E Tanque Verde Rd Ste 177	open
Jackson Bar + Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8864 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Kalina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	8963 E Tanque Verde Rd #201	open
Kindness Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	5387 N Ridge Spring Pl	open
Kona Ice Tucson	Dessert	Dessert	9155 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Le Buzz Better Buzz Coffee	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	9121 E Tanque Verde Rd Ste 125	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9075 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Mount Lemmon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Catalina Highway	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8906 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Plaza Deli Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9100 E Tanque Verde Rd Ste 150	open
Risky Business	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8848 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Rosati's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8814 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Starbucks Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	9125 E Tanque Verde Rd (Safeway - Tucs, On #1984)	open
STREET-taco and beer Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8898 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	9095 E Tanque Verde Rd Ste 151	open
Sydney's Sweet Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	8963 E Tanque Verde Rd #201	open
Taco Giro Taco Giro Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other) · Asian	9165 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Tandem American Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	8864 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
The Barnyard Crafthouse & Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	11011 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
The Culinary Design Catering Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8969 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
The Dog House Saloon at The Tanque Verde Ranch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining		14301 E Speedway Blvd	open
The Gardens at Bear Canyon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	8991 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
The Ranch Bar and Grill - Tucson	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	9155 E Tanque Verde Rd #177	open
Viv's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	8987 E Tanque Verde Rd #361	open
Viva Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	8995 E Tanque Verde Rd	open
Zoe Mediterranean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	9105 E Tanque Verde Rd #103	open
Don's Bayou Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8991 E Tanque Verde Rd	closed
Polish Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	9105 E Tanque Verde Rd Ste 103	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	14	11	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	19	18	12	4	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	16	15	9	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	20	18	13	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	15	10	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	18	17	10	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	17	16	7	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	16	15	5	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	19	17	6	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	17	14	5	8	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	19	17	5	9	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	13	4	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	3	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	15	3	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	15	5	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	13	3	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	15	4	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	4	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85749. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85748	4.5 mi	15	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.