BMIE Market 92377

San Bernardino County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,814 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,679 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,519 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±356 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,989 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,524 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$116,223 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,178 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,716 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±403 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$582,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,193 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 92377
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+1,000.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+450.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 12–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 92377. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.6	84	40%	+33.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90.0	90	35%	+31.5
Market Momentum Score	87.8	88	25%	+22.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,814	82	40%	+32.8
Median household income (ACS)	116,223	89	40%	+35.6
Households (ACS)	5,519	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.3	91	25%	+22.7
Population (ACS)	20,814	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	116,223	89	20%	+17.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.2	79	50%	+39.5
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	1,000	100	20%	+19.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 4 · Mexican 4 · Pizza 3 · Burgers 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Korean 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 10 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	2325 Sierra Lakes Pkwy	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	2022 N Riverside Ave	open
Chronic Tacos Chronic Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1103 W Casmalia St	open
Cinnabon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2325 Sierra Lakes Parkway Suite 102, (909) 903-3641	open
Cinnabon Pilot Travel Center - Rialto Cinnabon	Quick service		2325 Sierra Lakes Parkway Suite 102 (909) 903-3641	open
Corky's Kitchen & Bakery Corky's Kitchen & Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · American	2019 N Riverside Ave	open
Del Taco Del Taco	Quick service	Mexican	2000 N. Riverside Ave.	open
Ding Tea Rialto	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	1133 W Casmalia St	open
El Pollo Loco El Pollo Loco	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1225 W Renaissance Parkway	open
El Pollo Loco El Pollo Loco	Quick service		1225 W Renaissance Parkway	open
El Rancho Verde Golf Course	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	355 E Country Club Dr	open
El Rincon Pizzeria And Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2026 N Riverside Ave, Suite Ste G	open
Hott poppin kernels	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1148 W Arbeth St	open
M12 Manufacturing Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1960 Stonehurst Dr Ste 700	open
Mariscos El Puerto	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other)	2012 N Riverside Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1173 W Casmalia St	open
Panda Paradise	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2012 N Riverside Ave	open
Sal & Son's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2026 N Riverside Ave 2026	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2004 N Riverside Ave I-21 0	open
Starlights Pizza & Beer	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2026 Riverside Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2026 N Riverside Ave Suite D	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2279 W Casmalia St	open
The Pines Restaurant At San Manuel Casino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Korean		open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	—	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	—	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 92377. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
92376	3.2 mi	140	2023
92336	3.4 mi	111	2023
92411	4.9 mi	18	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.