BMIE Market 92411

San Bernardino County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,249 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,846 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,828 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±415 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,214 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,127 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,324 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,764 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,415 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$356,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,026 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 92411
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+63.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-18.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 20–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.70) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 92411. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.70, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.8	59	40%	+23.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.1	65	35%	+22.8
Market Momentum Score	64.6	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,249	87	40%	+34.7
Median household income (ACS)	54,324	21	40%	+8.3
Households (ACS)	6,828	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.6	86	25%	+21.5
Population (ACS)	27,249	87	20%	+17.4
Median household income (ACS)	54,324	21	20%	+4.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.9	62	50%	+31.2
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	63.6	72	20%	+14.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (54)

By cuisine

Mexican 19 · Latin American (other) 9 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Bakery 4 · BBQ 4 · Dessert 4 · Pizza 4 · American 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 40 · Quick service 11 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 3 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amapola Rico Taco Amapola Rico Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1279 W Base Line St	open
Amapola Rico Taco Amapola Rico Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	596 N Mt Vernon Ave	open
Bar Trinis	Bar		1562 W 5th St	open
Birrieria Guadalajara Birrieria Guadalajara	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom	Mexican	601 N Mt Vernon Ave #2603	open
Carnitas Michoacan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1136 N Mount Vernon Ave	open
Carrie's BBQ & Soul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1657 W Base Line St	open
Casa Trejo Tortilla Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1272 W 6th St	open
Chingonstreettacos/restaurant & catering / event	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1073 N Mt Vernon Ave	open
Churros La Linea	Café	Mexican · Coffee	1655 N Mount Vernon Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1136 N Mt Vernon Ave	open
El Tapatio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1060 W Base Line St	open
El Taquero Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1736 W Highland Ave	open
El Torete Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1455 W Highland Ave	open
Express Grinders & More	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1455 W Highland Ave Ste 110	open
Family street food	Food truck		1798 W 9th St	open
Flaco street hotdogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	1881 W Base Line St	open
Fresh Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	637 N Mount Vernon Ave	open
Helmand's Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Pizza	1776 W Highland Ave	open
Josie's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1332 W 5th St	open
Juan Pollo Juan Pollo	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1258 5th St	open
La Cocina de Esperanza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1562 W 5th St	open
La Perla Michoacana Ice Cream Parlor - 1338 West 5th Street San Bernardino	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1338 5th St	open
La seńora de las Cazuelas LA CHIAPANECA BIRRIERIA Y MENUDERIA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	840 Medical Center Dr	open
La Tamaliza Y Algo Mas Sinaloense	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1455 W Highland Ave #104	open
Las Cuatro Milpas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	856 N Mt Vernon Ave	open
Little Beijing	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	1584 W Base Line St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1574 W Base Line St SUITE 104	open
Los Cuñados Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1820 W 5th St	open
Lupe's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · Mexican · Latin American (other)	1460 W 5th St	open
Mama 'n' Dems	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1365 Massachusetts Ave	open
Mariscos Espinoza Mariscos Espinoza Mexican Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Latin American (other)	101, 2620, 1338 5th St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1208 N Mt Vernon Blvd	open
Mex-Gua Bakery	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	1622 W Base Line St	open
Mitla Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	602 N Mt Vernon Ave	open
O.m.g" Churros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1594 N California St	open
Pablo's Taco Bender	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1232 W Base Line St	open
Pam's Donut & Ice Cream	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1588 W Base Line St Ste 102	open
Paul Perea Jr	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1232 W Base Line St	open
Pepe’s San Bernardino	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1293 W 5th St	open
Pistacho’s Deli & Nieves De Garrafa	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	631 N Mt Vernon Ave	open
Pizza Fuego	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1776 W Highland Ave	open
Ricas botanas IRIS	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1086 W 15th St	open
San Bernardino Dry Ice and Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1184 W Base Line St	open
Spike's Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	1708 W Highland Ave	open
Spirit of Texas Craft BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1588 W Highland Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1588 West Base Line Road #104	open
Tacos chata	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	840 Medical Center Dr	open
Tacos Don Ramon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	739 N Mt Vernon Ave	open
Tacos y Birrieria Grinchi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican		open
Tam's Burger 11	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1616 W Highland Ave	open
The Mug	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1588 W Highland Ave	open
WaBa Grill WaBa Grill	Quick service	Asian · BBQ	1594 W Base Line St	open
WG0083 - San Bernardino (W Base Line) WaBa Grill	Quick service		1594 W. Base Line St.	open
Your Market	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	739 N Mt Vernon Ave #500	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	22	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	23	21	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	19	17	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	16	14	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	18	13	4	8	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	16	11	3	7	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	18	14	5	8	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	18	14	3	10	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	20	15	2	11	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	20	7	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	23	21	6	12	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	17	5	10	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	21	19	6	11	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	18	6	10	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	20	6	12	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	15	4	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	20	15	5	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	14	3	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	16	4	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	4	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	3	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	21	19	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	20	5	12	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	18	4	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	19	5	13	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	18	5	12	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 92411. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
92405	2.1 mi	25	2023
92401	2.3 mi	10	2023
92415	2.5 mi	1	2016
92376	3.2 mi	140	2023
92410	3.6 mi	54	2023
92408	4.3 mi	87	2023
92377	4.9 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.