BMIE Market 94402

San Mateo County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,475 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±544 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,981 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,804 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$172,522 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,726 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$2,000,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94402
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-29.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+4.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 16–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.7 per year, r² 0.25) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94402. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.25, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	90.6	91	40%	+36.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.5	61	35%	+21.5
Market Momentum Score	17.2	17	25%	+4.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,475	86	40%	+34.2
Median household income (ACS)	172,522	98	40%	+39.2
Households (ACS)	10,125	86	20%	+17.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.4	74	25%	+18.6
Population (ACS)	25,475	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	172,522	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-29.4	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	4.4	37	20%	+7.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (62)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 7 · Japanese 6 · Asian 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Mexican 5 · Pizza 5 · Sushi 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Breakfast 3 · Chinese 3 · Burgers 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Filipino 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Italian 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 46 · Café 6 · Quick service 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1630 Clayton & 1650/1730 Pine Street Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1730 S El Camino Real Ste 450	open
3 Bees Café	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	55 W 3rd Ave	open
All Spice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1602 S El Camino Real	open
Angel Moreno	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
Bay Leaf	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	724 S Amphlett Blvd	open
Beach Hut Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1798 S Delaware St	open
Bucky's Cocktail Lounge	Bar		101 South Blvd	open
Cafe 400	Restaurant (service type not stated)		400 S El Camino Real Ste 125	open
Camila's Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1601 S El Camino Real	open
Charm Thai Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1428 S El Camino Real	open
Chris Yeo Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1122 7th Ave	open
Crystal Springs Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	742 Polhemus Rd	open
David Wong	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1028 S Claremont St	open
Dianda's Bakery \| San Mateo	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Italian · Dessert	117 De Anza Blvd	open
DQ Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	1236 S El Camino	open
El Sinaloense	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1622 Palm Ave	open
Esposto's in the Evening	Restaurant (service type not stated)		59 Bovet Rd	open
Gau Poang	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1208 S El Camino Real	open
Golden 9th Deli and Market	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	500 9th Ave	open
Guy Enterprises, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		160 Bovet Rd Ste 405	open
Jack's Restaurant & Bar Jack's Restaurant and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1750 S El Camino Real	open
Jacks Sm Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1700 S El Camino Real Ste 210	open
La Casa de Los Huevos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Mexican · Latin American (other)	1214 S El Camino Real	open
Lily's Creperie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · French · European	108 De Anza Blvd	open
Little Hunan Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	120 De Anza Blvd	open
Marcovici Holdings, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1700 S El Camino Real Ste 210	open
Master The World	Winery / distillery / taproom		1670 S Amphlett Blvd, Suite 120	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1420 El Camino Real	open
Mid Peninsula Chinese Catholic	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1 Notre Dame Ave	open
Mints & honey	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Tea / bubble tea	1707 Gum St	open
Mr Pickle's Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1432 S El Camino Real	open
Neal's Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	114 De Anza Blvd	open
Nob Hill Pizza And Popcorn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	155 South Blvd	open
Noma Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	152 South Blvd	open
Original Nick's Pizzeria & Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1214 S El Camino Real	open
Pirooz Market International	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	1614 CA-82	open
Rainbow Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Pizza	112 De Anza Blvd	open
Robert Yeats Inc. Dba Windy City Pizza.com	Restaurant (service type not stated)		35 Bovet Rd	open
Serra Café	Café	Coffee		open
Sourdough & Co Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Bakery	119 De Anza Blvd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	111 De Anza Blvd Crystal Springs Shopping Center	open
Straits Management, Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1122 7th Ave	open
Suavecito Birria & Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1100 S Amphlett Blvd	open
Sushilito Boy	Food truck	Japanese · Sushi · Latin American (other)	1600 S El Camino Real	open
Sweetgreen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	1825 S Grant St	open
Tacos El Flamingo	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	1021 S El Camino Real	open
Taste & Glory	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1208 S El Camino Real	open
Tenka Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	88 17th Ave Unit 305	open
Terrace Grill	Buffet		Bdlg 10 Fl 2 1700 W. Hillsdale Blvd.	open
The Burger THE BURGER	Quick service	Burgers	1501 S El Camino Real	open
The Field Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	742 Polhemus Rd	open
The Grapevine Cafe	Café	Coffee	1726 S Amphlett Blvd	open
The Pantry	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · Breakfast · American	1855 S Delaware St	open
The Province Restaurant Sj	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1122 7th Ave	open
Truffle Poke Bar Poké Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	1234 S El Camino Real	open
Vineyard Cafe	Café	Coffee	1825 S Grant St	open
Wakuriya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	115 De Anza Blvd	open
Windy City Pizza And Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	35 Bovet Rd	open
Yan Can	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1650 S Amphlett Blvd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	100 De Anza Blvd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi	1655 El Camino Real	open
Pastry Smart Llc	Bakery	Bakery	1100 S Amphlett Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	28	28	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	30	30	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	34	33	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	32	31	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	30	25	11	10	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	26	22	10	9	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	23	19	8	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	29	25	10	9	4	1	NAICS1997
2002	27	22	8	9	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	27	23	8	12	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	26	23	6	14	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	30	28	12	12	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	39	37	18	13	5	1	NAICS2002
2007	27	24	10	12	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	28	24	10	11	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	29	26	12	11	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	28	25	15	8	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	30	27	16	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	35	29	16	10	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	32	27	14	10	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	40	32	14	14	4	1	NAICS2012
2015	45	37	17	16	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	42	35	17	14	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	43	36	21	11	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	40	34	19	10	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	38	33	19	8	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	38	33	18	9	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	36	29	16	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	25	16	6	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	24	16	5	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94402. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94403	1.4 mi	112	2023
94401	2.5 mi	165	2023
94002	2.6 mi	50	2023
94010	3.3 mi	127	2023
94404	3.6 mi	69	2023
94070	4.4 mi	105	2023
94065	4.4 mi	13	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.