BMIE Market 94505

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,970 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±936 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,446 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±382 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,403 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,452 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$146,480 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,692 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,029 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±887 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$830,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,249 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	16.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94505
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+125.0% DERIVED: 2008 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94505. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.1	84	40%	+33.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.3	85	35%	+29.8
Market Momentum Score	87.2	87	25%	+21.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,970	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	146,480	96	40%	+38.3
Households (ACS)	5,446	76	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.0	88	25%	+22.0
Population (ACS)	14,970	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	146,480	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 87 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+56.4
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+30.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 4 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 5 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aladino's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1555 Riverlake Rd	open
Berra Gyro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	14870 CA-4 a	open
Big Al's Diner	Casual dining	American	14870 Highway 4	open
Boardwalk Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5879 Marina Rd	open
Callahan's Coffee and Cones	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	1555 Riverlake Rd	open
Ceja Incorporated	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5879 Marina Rd	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14870 Highway 4 Ste F	open
Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	14870 Highway 4	open
Db Sports Bar & Steakhouse	Bar · Casual dining	Steakhouse	2477 Discovery Bay Blvd	open
Frosted!	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	4324 Cummings Ln	open
Gyros Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	14870 Highway 4	open
Jeff and Neo's Landing	Casual dining · Bar		5758 Marlin Dr	open
La Taqueria Limón	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	14850 California 4 Ste E	open
Lighthouse Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1520 Discovery Bay Blvd Ste 300	open
Ma Petite Chérie Bake Shop	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	5622 Arcadia Cir	open
Marina Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5879 Marina Rd	open
Matsuyama Restaurant Matsuyama	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	14870 CA-4 #E	open
Mi Pueblo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1555 RIVERLAKE Rd Ste E	open
Oriental House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2453 Discovery Bay Bkvd	open
Ortega Mexican Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	14870 Highway 4	open
Perry's Ice Cream & Treats	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1132 Beach Ct	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	14870 CA-4	open
Rsbrinc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5879 Marina Rd	open
Schultzies Bar	Bar		2005 Sand Point Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	14804 CA-4	open
Straw Hat Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	14870 Highway 4	open
Taste This Kitchen Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1555 Riverlake Rd Ste E	open
The Sugar Bug	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1412 Cullen Dr	open
Vin Alegro	Bar	Spanish / tapas · American	1520 Discovery Bay Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2006	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	6	3	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	10	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94505. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94514	3.8 mi	3	2022

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.