BMIE Market 94514

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,953 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±893 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	576 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±148 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,360 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	468 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$76,511 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,426 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,652 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±652 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$735,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210,178 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	30.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2022 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2022 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94514
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	36.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2012 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2027	2 (range 1–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2022 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	35 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94514. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2022, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.5	49	40%	+19.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.0	36	35%	+12.6
Market Momentum Score	13.3	13	25%	+3.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,953	44	40%	+17.7
Median household income (ACS)	76,511	57	40%	+23.0
Households (ACS)	576	39	20%	+7.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-40	8	35%	+2.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	1,953	44	20%	+8.9
Median household income (ACS)	76,511	57	20%	+11.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	-40	8	30%	+2.4
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

American 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Bar 5 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Quick service 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aloha Club	Bar		3045 Taylor Ln	open
Byron Hwy	Quick service · Bar		16141 Byron Hwy	open
Byron Roadhouse	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3045 Taylor Ln	open
Campos Family Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3501 Byer Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2995 Taylor Lane	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	14896 Highway 4	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	14840 HWY 4	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	14870 Hwy 4/Bixler Rd Suite G	open
Taqueria Diaz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	15031 Byron Hwy	open
Victor Uncorked	Winery / distillery / taproom		3501 Byer Rd	open
Wild Idol Saloon	Bar		3918 Main St	open
Byron Inn Cafe	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	16141 Byron Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	3	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	6	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	6	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	6	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	6	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	6	4	1	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94514. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95391	3.7 mi	9	2023
94505	3.8 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.