BMIE Market 95391

Alameda County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,574 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,033 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,097 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±597 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,959 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,331 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$176,952 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,256 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$947,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,829 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95391
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2010 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2010, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+800.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2000–2023 (10 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.47) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	93 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95391. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2000–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.47, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.4	89	40%	+35.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	93.0	93	35%	+32.6
Market Momentum Score	37.0	37	25%	+9.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,574	86	40%	+34.3
Median household income (ACS)	176,952	98	40%	+39.2
Households (ACS)	7,097	80	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.5	96	25%	+24.1
Population (ACS)	25,574	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	176,952	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 37 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-50	4	50%	+2.5
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+34.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Indian 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · American 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Bar 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
66strawberries	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	268 W Lucille Ave	open
Aappakadai Mountain House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	19685 Mountain House Pkwy	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	20770 Mountain House Parkway	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		18011 W. Grant Line Rd.	open
Häagen-Dazs Mountain House	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	19671 Mountain House Pkwy	open
Joycy Bakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	565 N Castellina Terrace	open
Kutub Minar New Delhi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian		open
Mountain House Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		16784 W Grant Line Rd	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	19677 Mountain House Pkwy	open
Rozum Café	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	491 N Orinda Ct	open
Sourdough & Co. Mountain House Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street	Other	Sandwiches	19673 Mountain House Pkwy	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	18163 W Grant Line Road	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	19699 Mountain House Pkwy	open
Tandoori Pizza - Mountain House Tandoori pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Indian	1140 Tradition St	open
THub Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	1158 Tradition St	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service		18047 Grant Line R., Unit A	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	2	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2022	4	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95391. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94514	3.7 mi	3	2022

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.