BMIE Market 94506

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,055 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,931 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,185 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±604 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,452 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,788 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,956,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±117,663 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94506
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	37 (range 31–43) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.31) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	42 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94506. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.31, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.4	91	40%	+36.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.4	76	35%	+26.7
Market Momentum Score	41.5	42	25%	+10.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,055	87	40%	+34.7
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	40%	+39.9
Households (ACS)	9,185	84	20%	+16.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.1	68	25%	+17.0
Population (ACS)	27,055	87	20%	+17.3
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	20%	+20.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (49)

By cuisine

Coffee 9 · Asian 7 · American 5 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · Bakery 3 · Japanese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Sushi 2 · Thai 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Indian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Bar 7 · Café 7 · Dessert 6 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Casual dining 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amazing Wok Chinese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Aryana Afghan Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	9000 Crow Canyon Rd Ste J	open
Ascona Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3414 Camino Tassajara	open
Bagel Street Cafe Bagel Street Cafe - Blackhawk	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	3422 Camino Tassajara	open
Baja Fresh Baja Fresh Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican	11000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Blackhawk Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4050 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Blue Sakana Blackhawk	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	3496 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Brown Butter	Café	Coffee	3456 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Burgerim	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11000 Crow Canyon Rd Ste G	open
Cafe Meyers	Café	Coffee	3468 Camino Tassajara	open
China Paradise Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3446 Camino Tassajara	open
Choza Tacos Y Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3421 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Cocoa Vida	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3456 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Corporate Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	9000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Creamistry	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3435 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Danville Kitchens Pizza Wings Brews	Bar	Pizza · Chicken / wings	9000 Crow Canyon Rd Ste P	open
East Bay Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	9000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Everest Wine & Cattle Company Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3414 Camino Tassajara	open
Fat Maddie's Blackhawk	Casual dining · Bar	American	3421 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Fieldhouse Sports Grill	Bar		3483 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	3456 Camino Tassajara Rd	open
For the Love of sugar	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery		open
Happy Lemon - Danville	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3450 Camino Tassajara	open
Hayat Kabob House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	3407 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
High Tech Burrito High Tech Burrito - Alamo	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3452 Camino Tassajara	open
In the Mix	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	11000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Juice Zone	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	11000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
KavehG	Café · Bar	Coffee	3408 Camino Tassajara	open
Laurus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3483 Blackhawk Plaza Cr.	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
MJ Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3468 Camino Tassajara	open
Nekter Juice Bar - Temporarily Closed	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	3456 Blackhawk Plaza Circle	open
Nilo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3451 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Pia's Kitchen Indian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	9000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Similan - Andaman Thai Danville Andaman Thai- Danville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	9000 Crow Canyon Rd Ste K	open
Sourdough & Co Blackhawk Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3454 Camino Tassajara	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	3496 Camino Tassajara	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	11000 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Starbucks, Hartz Ave	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Stella's Ristorante	Bar	Italian	3451 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
STOMP!	Bar		3451 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	9000 Crow Canyon Rd Ste A	open
Sultan Kebab & Falafel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	11000 Crow Canyon Rd G	open
The Prickly Pear Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3421 Blackhawk Plaza Cir	open
Togo's Sandwiches	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	3454 Camino Tassajara	open
United Danville Of Northern California Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9000 Crow Canyon Rd Ste T	open
Yersen Gelato Cakes	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Italian · Dessert	9000 Crow Canyon Rd N	open
Yogurt Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3450 Camino Tassajara	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	16	16	5	6	5	—	NAICS1997
1999	20	20	9	7	4	—	NAICS1997
2000	17	17	5	7	5	—	NAICS1997
2001	25	22	8	7	7	2	NAICS1997
2002	22	21	9	5	7	1	NAICS1997
2003	18	18	8	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	23	22	8	9	5	—	NAICS2002
2005	26	24	9	10	5	—	NAICS2002
2006	25	25	11	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	25	25	12	6	7	—	NAICS2002
2008	23	23	11	6	6	—	NAICS2007
2009	24	24	13	5	6	—	NAICS2007
2010	23	23	11	6	6	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	22	11	6	5	—	NAICS2007
2012	23	23	13	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	25	25	15	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	25	25	13	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	30	30	14	10	6	—	NAICS2012
2016	31	31	16	10	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	34	33	14	13	6	—	NAICS2017
2018	37	35	13	15	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	36	33	13	14	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	36	34	14	13	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	36	34	12	15	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	33	30	10	14	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	32	30	9	15	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94506. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94588	2.4 mi	111	2023
94582	2.9 mi	24	2023
94528	3.9 mi	1	2010
94526	4.5 mi	90	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.