BMIE Market 94582

Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	47,424 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	16,466 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±556 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	38,537 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,345 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$214,677 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,912 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,932 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,635,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54,341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94582
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+41.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+2,200.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,300.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	29 (range 26–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.76) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	97 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	91 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	89 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94582. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.76, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	97.2	97	40%	+38.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90.8	91	35%	+31.8
Market Momentum Score	88.5	89	25%	+22.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 97 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	47,424	96	40%	+38.5
Median household income (ACS)	214,677	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	16,466	95	20%	+19.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.1	92	25%	+22.9
Population (ACS)	47,424	96	20%	+19.3
Median household income (ACS)	214,677	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	41.2	88	50%	+43.9
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	2,200	100	20%	+20.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 4 · Pizza 4 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · Indian 3 · Italian 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ascona Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11020 Bollinger Canyon Rd	open
Bollinger Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	680 Bollinger Canyon Way	open
Bridges at Gale Ranch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9000 S Gale Ridge Rd	open
Canyon Lakes Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		640 Bollinger Canyon Way	open
Fat Cactus Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	11010 Bollinger Canyon Rd	open
Indian Hotspot	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	11010-B Bollinger Canyon Rd	open
King Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	11040 Bollinger Canyon Rd	open
Lucky Dog Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Latin American (other)	2020 Canyon Woods Cir	open
Peet's Coffee & Tea	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	11000 Bollinger Canyon Rd Ste A	open
Pizza My Heart Pizza My Heart - Santa Cruz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3141 Crow Canyon Pl	open
San Ramon Roof Repair Services	Bar		123 Street	open
Satvik Eggless Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	7912 Persica Ct	open
Sergio's Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	500 Bollinger Canyon Way	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	11060 Bollinger Canyon Rd (Safeway - S, An Ramon #2712)	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11000 Bollinger Canyon Road Suite D	open
Subway Restaurants	Quick service		10550 Albion Rd	open
Swaraj India Restaurant (San Ramon) Swaraj INDIA Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	500 Bollinger Canyon Way Ste A1	open
T4	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	11020 Bollinger Canyon Rd	open
Tandoori Pizza - San Ramon Tandoori pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Indian · Asian	11020 Bollinger Canyon Rd	open
The View Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	9000 S Gale Ridge Rd	open
Worth Ranch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	San Ramon Valley	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Japanese · Sushi · Asian	11050 Bollinger Canyon Rd	open
Deliteful Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11040 Bollinger Canyon Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2004	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	20	19	4	11	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	20	19	6	7	6	1	NAICS2007
2012	19	19	7	6	6	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	7	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	5	5	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	17	5	6	6	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	19	7	5	7	—	NAICS2012
2017	22	20	7	6	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	5	5	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	23	10	5	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	28	23	9	5	9	—	NAICS2017
2021	29	24	9	6	9	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	21	7	6	8	—	NAICS2022
2023	28	24	8	8	8	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94582. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94506	2.9 mi	30	2023
94588	3.4 mi	111	2023
94568	3.5 mi	168	2023
94583	4.1 mi	136	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.