BMIE Market 94552

Alameda County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,506 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,268 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,021 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±444 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,454 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,067 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$212,605 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,902 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,197 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±941 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,394,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78,612 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	51.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94552
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+83.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,000.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94552. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.0	85	40%	+34.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.2	82	35%	+28.8
Market Momentum Score	72.2	72	25%	+18.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,506	76	40%	+30.4
Median household income (ACS)	212,605	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	5,021	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	35%	+26.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.6	82	25%	+20.5
Population (ACS)	14,506	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	212,605	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10	68	50%	+33.8
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	30%	+22.8
20-year restaurant growth	83.3	78	20%	+15.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

Asian 2 · Pizza 2 · American 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Quick service 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bar 2 · Other 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bodi's Java	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3803 E Castro Valley Blvd	open
Chouinard Vineyards & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		33853 Palomares Rd	open
Del Monte	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Dickeys Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3835 E Castro Valley Blvd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	3300 E Castro Valley Blvd Suite G	open
Kasper's Hot Dogs	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	3300 E Castro Valley Blvd # J	open
Palomares Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	3779 E Castro Valley Blvd	open
Panda Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	3893 E Castro Valley Blvd	open
Pho Play	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	3835 E Castro Valley Blvd	open
Pyzano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3835 E Castro Valley Blvd	open
Rigg Estate Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		24542 Palomares Rd	open
Skye Valley Training	Bar		10250 Crow Canyon Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3933 E Castro Valley Blvd	open
TwiningVine Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		16851 Cull Canyon Rd	open
Yogurt Deluxe	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	4065 E Castro Valley Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	1	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	—	5	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	—	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94552. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94542	3.6 mi	11	2023
94583	4.7 mi	136	2023
94541	4.9 mi	109	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.