BMIE Market 94563
Contra Costa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 19,378 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±100 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 7,218 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±303 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 17,672 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 6,816 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 47.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $1,866,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65,196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 20.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94563 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 17.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +3.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +23.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 27 (range 23–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.26) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94563. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.26, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 88.2 | 88 | 40% | +35.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 65.0 | 65 | 35% | +22.7 |
| Market Momentum Score | 51.8 | 52 | 25% | +13.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 19,378 | 81 | 40% | +32.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 250,001 | 100 | 40% | +39.9 |
| Households (ACS) | 7,218 | 80 | 20% | +16.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 3.2 | 48 | 35% | +17.0 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 16.5 | 48 | 25% | +11.9 |
| Population (ACS) | 19,378 | 81 | 20% | +16.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 250,001 | 100 | 20% | +20.0 |
Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 6.7 | 63 | 50% | +31.7 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 3.2 | 48 | 30% | +14.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 0 | 28 | 20% | +5.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (50)
By cuisine
Asian 9 · American 7 · Italian 7 · Coffee 6 · Japanese 5 · Mexican 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Sushi 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · European 2 · Indian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Thai 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · French 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 40 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Bakery 3 · Other 3 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Casual dining 1 · Fast casual 1 · Quick service 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Moose Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 76 Moraga Way | open |
| Anya's Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 70 Moraga Way | open |
| Baan Thai Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 99 Orinda Way | open |
| Baja Cali Taqueria & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 23 Orinda Way | open |
| Barbacoa Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2 Theatre Sq Ste 130 | open | |
| Cafe Teatro | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee · Sandwiches | 26 Orinda Way | open |
| Casa Orinda | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · American | 20 Bryant Way | open |
| Comelones Tacos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2 Orinda Theatre Square Ste 142 | open |
| CreekHaus | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 31 Orinda Way | open | |
| Europa Hofbrau | Restaurant (service type not stated) | German / Eastern European · European | 64 Moraga Way | open |
| Forge Pizza Danville Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2 Theatre Sq Ste 248 | open | |
| Genuine Goodness | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | American · Healthy / salads / bowls | 21 Orinda Way | open |
| Geppetto's Caffe | Café · Coffee shop | Coffee · Sandwiches | 87 Orinda Way | open |
| Great British Pop Up Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 21 Orinda Way | open |
| Hanazen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 87 Orinda Way | open |
| Heaven Sent Cafe & Bakery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 19 Orinda Way | open |
| La Piazza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 15 Moraga Way | open |
| Lava Pit Hawaiian Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hawaiian / Pacific · BBQ | 2 Orinda Theatre Sq | open |
| Loard's Ice Cream and Candies Orinda | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 230 Brookwood Rd | open |
| Maya Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 74 Moraga Way | open |
| Nation's Giant Hamburgers & Great Pies Nation's Giant Hamburgers | Quick service · Bakery | Burgers · Bakery | 65 Moraga Way | open |
| Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 63 Moraga Way | open |
| Permanently Closed | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 41 Moraga Way | open | |
| Petra cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Greek | 2 Orinda Theatre Sq | open |
| Piccolo Napoli | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 2 Theatre Sq #144 | open |
| Rangel Signature, Inc Dba Shelbys Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2 Theatre Sq Ste 152 | open | |
| Republic of Cake | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 2 Theatre Sq Ste 151 | open |
| SAFFRON Indian Restaurant & Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Indian | 2 Orinda Theatre Square | open |
| Sake Blue | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 1 Camino Sobrante Ste 6 | open |
| Serika Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 2 Orinda Theatre Square Ste 118 | open |
| Shelby's Shelby's Canada | Restaurant (service type not stated) | French · European · American | 2 Orinda Theatre Square | open |
| Shri Siddhivinayak Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2 Theatre Sq Ste 153 | open | |
| Siam Orchid Thai Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 23 Orinda Way | open |
| Square Baby | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2 Orinda Theatre Sq | open | |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 1 Camino Sobrante #9 | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop | Coffee | 2 Theatre Sq | open |
| Subway | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2 Theatre Square, Suite 108 | open |
| Super Lucky Elephant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | 25 Orinda Way | open | |
| Sushi Island | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 19 Moraga Way | open |
| Szechwan Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 79 Orinda Way | open |
| Taverna Pellegrini | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 65 Moraga Way | open |
| The Fourth Bore Taproom and Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining | Mexican | 2 Orinda Theatre Square Ste 134 | open |
| The Refined Palate | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 19 Orinda Way | open |
| Village Inn Cafe Village Inn Restaurants | Café | Breakfast · Coffee · American | 204 Village Square #2504 | open |
| Village Pizza Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 19 Orinda Way | open |
| Wild Magnolia | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Breakfast | 2 Theatre Sq | open |
| Yan's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1 Orinda Way Ste 1 | open | |
| Zamboni's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1 Camino Sobrante | open |
| ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 2 Camino Sobrante | open |
| Lutan Enterprises Llc Dba Loards Ice Cream And | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 230 Brookwood Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 26 | 26 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 26 | 26 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 24 | 23 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 32 | 31 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 29 | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 34 | 32 | 14 | 12 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 30 | 28 | 12 | 12 | 4 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 29 | 28 | 12 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 31 | 28 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 36 | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 36 | 33 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 35 | 32 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 29 | 27 | 16 | 9 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 32 | 30 | 16 | 12 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 31 | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 31 | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 33 | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 32 | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 32 | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 33 | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 35 | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 33 | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 33 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 30 | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 31 | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 30 | 29 | 16 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 29 | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 27 | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 29 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 34 | 32 | 18 | 10 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |