BMIE Market 94573

Napa County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	84 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	72 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	94 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	53 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$250,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	75.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	1.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 94573
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	212.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2006–2016 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.14) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	28 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	24 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	9 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94573. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2006–2016, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.14, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	44.4	44	40%	+17.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	23.6	24	35%	+8.3
Market Momentum Score	8.9	9	25%	+2.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	84	6	40%	+2.3
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	40%	+39.9
Households (ACS)	72	11	20%	+2.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	119.1	3	25%	+0.9
Population (ACS)	84	6	20%	+1.2
Median household income (ACS)	250,001	100	20%	+20.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 9 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-50	4	50%	+2.0
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.4
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

American 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Coffee 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 28 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 9 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alex Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1140 Rutherford Rd.	open
Alpha Omega Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		1155 Mee Ln at Hwy 29	open
Auberge Bistro & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · French	180 Rutherford Hill Rd	open
Beaulieu Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1960 St Helena Hwy	open
Cakebread Cellars Cakebread Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		8300 St Helena Hwy	open
Castello Di Amarosa Castello di Amorosa	Winery / distillery / taproom · Café	Coffee · Italian	4045 St Helena Hwy	open
Caymus Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		8700 Conn Creek Rd	open
Chimney Rock Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Dws	Restaurant (service type not stated)		180 Rutherford Hill	open
Elizabeth Spencer Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1165 Rutherford Rd	open
Fleury Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		950 Galleron Rd	open
Foley Johnson Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		8350 St Helena Hwy	open
Frog's Leap Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		8815 Conn Creek Rd	open
Georges de Latour Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		Beaulieu Vineyard, 1960 St Helena Hwy S	open
Grgich Hills Estate Grgich Hills Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1829 St Helena Hwy	open
Hewitt Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1960 St. Helena Highway	open
Honig Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		850 Rutherford Rd	open
La Luna Market & Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1153 Rutherford Rd	open
La Toque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1140 Rutherford Rd	open
Morisoli Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1341 Niebaum Ln	open
Mumm Napa Mumm Sparkling	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		8445 Silverado Trail	open
Napa Valley California	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Niebaum Coppola Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1991 St Helena Hwy	open
Niebaum-Coppola Winery Inglenook	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	European	1991 Saint Helena Highway	open
PEJU Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		8466 St Helena Hwy	open
Peju Winery Napa Valley	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar			open
Round Pond Olive Mill Round Pond Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom		886 Rutherford Rd	open
Rutherford Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1180 Rutherford Rd	open
Rutherford Hill Winery Rutherford Hill Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		200 Rutherford Hill Rd	open
Rutherford Wine District	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Scarecrow Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Jj Cohn Estate	open
St. Supery Estate Vineyards and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		8440 St Helena Hwy	open
Staglin Family Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1570 Bella Oaks Ln	open
Tayson Pierce Estate Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1060 Rutherford Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94573. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94562	2.2 mi	1	2009
94599	4.9 mi	14	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.