BMIE Market 94920

Marin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,609 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±574 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,934 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±315 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,474 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,817 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$246,045 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,397 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$2,000,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94920
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-5.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.48) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	33 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94920. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.48, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.3	84	40%	+33.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.9	56	35%	+19.6
Market Momentum Score	32.7	33	25%	+8.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,609	74	40%	+29.6
Median household income (ACS)	246,045	100	40%	+39.8
Households (ACS)	4,934	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-5.3	21	35%	+7.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.3	55	25%	+13.8
Population (ACS)	12,609	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	246,045	100	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-5.3	21	30%	+6.3
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

Coffee 9 · American 6 · Italian 5 · Bakery 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · French 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Café 9 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angel Island Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	Main St	open
Angel Island Company Office	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1520 Mar W St Ste G	open
Bluerock Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		75 Spring Ln	open
Caffe Acri	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Italian	1 Main St	open
Candy Store On Main Street	Dessert		7 Main St	open
Dynasty Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1801 Tiburon Blvd	open
Elite Fitness And Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	80 Main St	open
Ginza Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	41 Main St	open
Lily Kai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1881 Tiburon Blvd	open
Lola's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	110 Main St	open
Luna Blu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	35 Main St	open
Malibu Farm Tiburon Malibu Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	9 Main St	open
Ming's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1550 Tiburon Blvd	open
Mog Asu Wine Bar & Bottle Shop	Bar	Spanish / tapas	1 Blackfield Dr	open
Musette	Bar		72 Main St	open
Nouvelle Macarons	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	251 Trinidad Dr	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1 Blackfield Dr suite a	open
Petite Left Bank	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · Coffee	1696 Tiburon Blvd	open
Rustic Bakery Rustic Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1550 Tiburon Blvd	open
Salt & Pepper	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	38 Main St	open
Sam's Anchor Cafe Sam's Anchor Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Coffee	27 Main St	open
Servino Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	114 Main St	open
Squalo Vino	Bar		34 Main St	open
Sweet Things Inc. Jane on Fillmore	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	The Cove at Tiburon, 1 Blackfield Dr	open
The Bungalow Kitchen - Tiburon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5 Main St	open
The Caprice Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1701 Tiburon Blvd	open
The Caviar Co.	Bar · Café	Coffee	46A Main St	open
The Grass Shack Organic Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1694 Tiburon Blvd	open
Tiburon Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	1651 Tiburon Blvd	open
Troya Mediterranean Tiburon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mediterranean · American	1 Blackfield Dr	open
Via Piccola Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza · Italian	1 Blackfield Dr	open
Waypoint Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	15 Main St	open
Waypoint Pizza Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Blackfield Dr # 406	open
Flybird	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1 Blackfield Dr	closed
Jose Bartender	Bar		116 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	17	15	12	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	18	16	11	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	19	16	10	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	18	16	10	3	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	20	17	10	4	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	21	18	8	6	4	—	NAICS2002
2004	23	19	11	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	23	19	11	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	23	20	11	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	24	21	14	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	22	21	14	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	18	11	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	16	9	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	18	10	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	22	21	13	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	21	19	11	4	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	21	20	12	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	22	21	12	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	19	12	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	20	12	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	18	11	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	14	9	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	17	12	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	18	13	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94920. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94925	4.0 mi	28	2023
94964	4.0 mi	1	1998
94965	4.9 mi	49	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.