BMIE Market 94923

Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,483 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±581 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	693 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±184 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,411 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,449 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$147,546 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±91,210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,722 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±139 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,186,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±365,341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94923
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	49.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+22.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94923. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.6	63	40%	+25.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.5	58	35%	+20.5
Market Momentum Score	76.8	77	25%	+19.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,483	39	40%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	147,546	96	40%	+38.3
Households (ACS)	693	43	20%	+8.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	57.1	86	35%	+29.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	74.2	6	25%	+1.5
Population (ACS)	1,483	39	20%	+7.9
Median household income (ACS)	147,546	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10	68	50%	+33.8
10-year restaurant growth	57.1	86	30%	+25.7
20-year restaurant growth	120	86	20%	+17.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

Seafood 13 · American 11 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anello Family Crab & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1820 Westshore Rd	open
Bay View Restaurant - Inn at the Tides	Restaurant (service type not stated)		800 Coast Highway One	open
Blue Water Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	21031 Heron Dr	open
Bluewater Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		21301 Heron Dr	open
Bodega Bay - The Tides	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bar	Coffee		open
Candy & Kites	Dessert		1415 CA-1	open
Captains Daveys Ice Cream & Espresso	Dessert	Dessert	537 S Hwy 1	open
Drakes Fireside Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining		103 CA-1	open
Drakes Sonoma Coast	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	103 Coast Highway 1	open
Fisherman's Cove	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1850 Bay Flat Rd	open
Ginochio's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · BBQ · American	1410 Bay Flat Rd	open
Gourmet au Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	1412 Bay Flat Rd	open
Huria's Pizza & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mediterranean	1400 CA-1	open
La Bodeguita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2001 Highway 1	open
Lucas Warf	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	Highway 1	open
Lucas Wharf Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	647 Highway 1	open
Nom Nom Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	390 Calle Del Sol	open
Patrick's of Bodega Bay	Dessert		915 CA-1	open
Roadhouse Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1580 Eastshore Rd	open
Rocker Oysterfeller's at the Wharf	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	595 CA-1	open
Sandpiper Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1400 N Highway 1	open
Sea Flower Cafe	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	2001 CA-1	open
Sonoma Coast Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		555 Highway 1	open
Spud Point Crab Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	1910 Westshore Rd	open
Terrapin Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	1580 Eastshore Rd	open
The Bay View	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	800 Highway 1	open
The Birds Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	1407 CA-1	open
The Boat House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	1445 CA-1	open
The Dog House The Dog House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Burgers · American	537 Smith Brothers Rd	open
Tides Wharf Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Seafood · Dessert · Breakfast · American	835 Highway 1	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	7	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94923. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94922	4.7 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.