BMIE Market 94945

Marin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,635 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,171 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,081 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±482 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,167 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,020 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,790 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,298 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,326 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±180 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,124,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37,842 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	50 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94945
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	24.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+19.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+56.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	49 (range 44–55) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	34 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94945. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.8	82	40%	+32.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.2	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	33.9	34	25%	+8.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,635	79	40%	+31.7
Median household income (ACS)	107,790	85	40%	+34.2
Households (ACS)	7,081	79	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.4	51	35%	+17.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.4	22	25%	+5.5
Population (ACS)	17,635	79	20%	+15.9
Median household income (ACS)	107,790	85	20%	+17.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	50%	+9.7
10-year restaurant growth	6.4	51	30%	+15.3
20-year restaurant growth	19.1	45	20%	+9.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (122)

By cuisine

American 12 · Bakery 12 · Asian 11 · Coffee 10 · Dessert 10 · Mexican 10 · Sandwiches 10 · Italian 8 · Breakfast 6 · Healthy / salads / bowls 6 · Chicken / wings 5 · Chinese 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Pizza 5 · Burgers 4 · Japanese 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · European 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sushi 3 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Greek 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Indian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 77 · Quick service 19 · Bakery 12 · Dessert 11 · Bar 10 · Café 9 · Casual dining 9 · Coffee shop 7 · Specialty food shop 5 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Fast casual 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Other 2 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aloh-O	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls	128 Vintage Way	open
Ayawaska Hilltop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	850 Lamont Ave	open
Bacon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	1500 Grant Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1769 Grant Ave	open
Batika India Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	868 Grant Ave	open
Beercraft	Brewery / taproom · Bar		7388B Redwood Blvd	open
Belli Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	1530 Armstrong Ave	open
Bliss Ice Cream Novato	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	109 San Marin Dr	open
Blue Barn Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	819 Grant Ave	open
Brown's Binyerd	Bar		1009 1st St	open
Carmen's La Hacienda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1401 Grant Ave	open
Celine's Sweets	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	879 Grant Ave	open
Chevys Fresh Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	128 Vintage Way	open
Chez Pierre Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7330 Redwood Blvd	open
Chianti Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	7416 Redwood Blvd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	35 Rowland Way	open
China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Noodles / ramen / pho	1222 Grant Ave	open
China Palace Restaurant China Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7089 Redwood Blvd	open
China Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	107 San Marin Dr	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	128 Vintage Way Ste W-4	open
Costco Food Court Blueland	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		300 Vintage Way #141b	open
Creekside Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	1719 Grant Ave	open
Crumbl - Novato	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	132 Vintage Way Unit F-11	open
Daniel Goepp Dba Chick-fil-a Novato	Restaurant (service type not stated)		35 Rowland Way	open
Dave's Hot Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	140 Vintage Way, Suite Ste G-12	open
Deborbas	Bar · Casual dining		819 Grant Ave	open
Double Rainbow Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	112 Vintage Way	open
Dr. Insomniac's Fine Coffee, Tea, Smoothies & Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	800 Grant Ave	open
El Encanto Restaurante Y Cantina	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	940 7th St	open
El Palmar Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1108 Grant Ave	open
Extreme Pizza Extreme Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	104 Vintage Way	open
Finnegan's Marin	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	877 Grant Ave	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	7505 Redwood Blvd	open
Flour Chylde Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls · Dessert	850 Grant Ave	open
Garden Court Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese		open
Golden Gate Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	7380 Redwood Blvd	open
Grazie Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	823 Grant Ave	open
Hanna & Abe Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		823 Grant Ave Ste 8	open
HenHouse Novato Record Room	Bar		1301 Grant Ave	open
Hilltop 1892	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	850 Lamont Ave	open
Hilltop Landmark Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		850 Lamont Ave	open
HopMonk Tavern Novato HopMonk Tavern Novato	Bar · Casual dining		224 Vintage Way	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	144 Vintage Way	open
In-N-Out Burger In-N-Out Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	216 Vintage Way	open
Indian Valley Brewery	Brewery / taproom		1016 Railroad Ave	open
Italian Delite	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	971 Front St	open
Jack In The Box Jack in the Box	Quick service	Burgers · American	7135 Redwood Blvd	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	128 Vintage Way Suite W-3	open
Jennie Low's Chinese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	120 Vintage Way	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	7145 Redwood Boulevard	open
Kitchen At 868 Grant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	868 Grant Ave	open
L&l Hawaiian Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7320 Redwood Blvd Ste B	open
La Cabaña Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mexican	1516 Grant Ave	open
La Maison De La Reine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	807 Grant Ave	open
La Michoacana Ice Cream and Treats	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Latin American (other) · Dessert	1219 Grant Ave	open
Lambert Bridge Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Las Guitarras Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1017 Reichert Ave	open
Left Coast Depot	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	807 Grant Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	936 7th St	open
Lotus Curry House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		807 Grant Ave	open
Maker Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		1030 Railroad Ave	open
Mandarin Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	Redwood Blvd.	open
Mantra Wines	Bar		881 Grant Ave	open
Marin County - Cars and Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee		open
Marvin's Breakfast Club	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1112 Grant Ave	open
Mary's Pizza Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	121 San Marin Dr	open
Mary's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	819 Grant Ave	open
Masa Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	813 Grant Ave	open
Matsuyama Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	939 Front St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7340 Redwood Hwy	open
Mi Pueblo Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	905 Grant Ave	open
Milk Bar Local Kitchens	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Japanese · Dessert · Bakery · Sushi	880 De Long Ave	open
Ming Yen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1628 Grant Ave	open
Mod Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	140 Vintage Way	open
Moylan's Brewing Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 Rowland Way	open
Musico's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1200 Grant Ave	open
My Thai II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	811 Grant Ave	open
Nais Management Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 San Marin Dr	open
Nick the Greek Nick The Greek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	128 Vintage Way #101	open
Noah's Bagels	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Sandwiches	1703 Grant Ave	open
Novato Art, Wine & Music Festival	Winery / distillery / taproom		1010 Grant Ave	open
Off the Grid: Novato @ Vintage Oaks	Food truck		201 Vintage Way	open
One Stop Auto Repair	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7325 Redwood Blvd	open
Oren's Hummus	Restaurant (service type not stated)		880 De Long Ave	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	132 Vintage Way	open
Panera Bread	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	132 Vintage Way Ste F17	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	144 Vintage Way	open
Paris Baguette Paris Baguette	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	15 Rowland Way	open
Pasta Pomodoro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	140 Vintage Way	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	7320 Redwood Blvd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	200 Vintage Way Marin	open
Pizzuti & Robertson Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7416 Redwood Blvd	open
Pods Brews	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1026 Machin Ave	open
Proposition Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	880 De Long Ave	open
Rooster & Rice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	880 De Long Ave	open
Rossi's Deli, Market And Bait	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	5 Harbor Dr	open
Rustic Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1407 Grant Ave	open
Sangabriel Food Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		905 Grant Ave	open
See's Candies See's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	120 Vintage Way D7	open
Smashburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	7320 Redwood Blvd	open
Smith House Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7505 Redwood Blvd	open
Sourdough & Co. Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	104 Vintage Way	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	7514 Redwood Blvd The Village At Novato	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	127 San Marin Dr (San Marin & San Ramo, N - Novato)	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	Vintage Oaks at Novato, 132 Vintage Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	111 San Marin Drive	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1763 Grant Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	930 Seventh Street	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	180 Rowland Blvd	open
Tagliaferri's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1701 Grant Ave	open
Teeny Cake	Bakery	Bakery	7400 Redwood Blvd Ste 101	open
The Foraged Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	351 San Andreas Dr	open
The Melt	Restaurant (service type not stated)		880 De Long Ave	open
Trailhead	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	127 San Marin Dr	open
Trek Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1026 Machin Ave	open
Tuscany Country Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1516 Grant Ave	open
Tuttimelon	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	132 Vintage Way	open
United Vision And Design Dba Oli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7250 Redwood Blvd Ste 113	open
Viking Cocktail Lounge	Bar		7377 Redwood Blvd	open
Week of Dinners	Restaurant (service type not stated)		351 San Andreas Dr	open
Wendy's	Quick service		7135 Redwood Blvd	open
Checker Ny Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	104 Vintage Way	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	36	32	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	34	29	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	30	25	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	36	31	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	45	39	19	13	7	5	NAICS1997
1999	41	36	21	9	6	4	NAICS1997
2000	46	40	23	10	7	4	NAICS1997
2001	40	34	20	9	5	4	NAICS1997
2002	46	40	22	9	8	4	NAICS1997
2003	49	42	26	8	6	4	NAICS2002
2004	45	39	22	9	7	4	NAICS2002
2005	45	39	22	8	8	4	NAICS2002
2006	52	46	27	9	9	3	NAICS2002
2007	48	42	23	10	8	3	NAICS2002
2008	48	42	24	9	8	3	NAICS2007
2009	46	40	23	9	7	3	NAICS2007
2010	48	42	22	10	9	3	NAICS2007
2011	52	48	27	11	9	2	NAICS2007
2012	53	50	28	12	10	2	NAICS2012
2013	52	47	27	12	8	3	NAICS2012
2014	57	52	28	14	10	3	NAICS2012
2015	58	52	28	13	11	3	NAICS2012
2016	58	53	26	14	11	3	NAICS2012
2017	54	49	28	12	9	—	NAICS2017
2018	60	55	32	14	9	—	NAICS2017
2019	54	50	27	15	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	55	50	26	15	9	—	NAICS2017
2021	51	45	22	14	9	—	NAICS2017
2022	57	52	22	20	10	—	NAICS2022
2023	56	50	22	17	11	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94945. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94947	4.1 mi	32	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.