BMIE Market 94947

Marin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,225 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,854 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±530 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,283 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,772 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,766 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,292 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,607 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±217 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,017,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54,312 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94947
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-13.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-5.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	32 (range 27–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94947. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.6	88	40%	+35.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.5	63	35%	+21.9
Market Momentum Score	24.2	24	25%	+6.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,100	85	40%	+33.9
Median household income (ACS)	128,766	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	8,854	83	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.3	59	25%	+14.8
Population (ACS)	24,100	85	20%	+16.9
Median household income (ACS)	128,766	93	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-13.5	16	50%	+8.2
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

Asian 7 · Bakery 6 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Mexican 4 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Japanese 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 6 · Quick service 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Café 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Piece of Cake & Confections	Bakery	Bakery	1555 S Novato Blvd	open
Chao Praya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1553 S Novato Blvd	open
Chicha y Cafe	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Asian	1543 S Novato Blvd	open
Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2031 Novato Blvd	open
Daily Grind Marin Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1551 S Novato Blvd	open
Donut Works	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	1541 Center Rd	open
FBI Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2031 Novato Blvd	open
Great Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2011 Novato Blvd	open
High Tech Burrito - Novato	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	942 Diablo Ave	open
Honest Quality Reliable Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1531 S Novato Blvd Ste A	open
Hughes' Sheebeen Pub	Bar			open
JJ's Burger Joint	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2031 Novato Blvd	open
Kona Ice of North Marin	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2 Amber Ct	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		350 Rowland Boulevard	open
La Carreta La Carreta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2033 Novato Blvd	open
Little Goan Indian Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	2007 Novato Blvd	open
Lobos Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	735 Sunset Pkwy	open
Mmp Restaurant And Bar Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1561 S Novato Blvd	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1561 S Novato Blvd	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	975 Diablo Ave	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	922 Diablo Ave Ste B	open
Pars National Incorporated	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1700 Novato Blvd	open
Patisserie Orlando	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1555 S Novato Blvd	open
Pearl Novato	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	942 Diablo Ave	open
Redwood Bagel Company	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	1559 S Novato Blvd	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1565 S Novato Blvd	open
Sabor de Mexico	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1531 S Novato Blvd	open
Sabor Nica Restaurant & Gift Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1601 Novato Blvd	open
Sam's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1545 S Novato Blvd	open
Springboard Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom		1701 Novato Blvd Ste 209	open
Star Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Latin American (other)	1700 Novato Blvd	open
Stefano's Pizza Stefano's Solar Powered Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1553 S Novato Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	Safeway Shopping Center	open
Tagliaferri's Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2051 Novato Blvd	open
The Habit Burger Grill The Habit Burger Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · American	924 Diablo Avenue	open
The Speakeasy BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1531 S Novato Blvd	open
Tommy's Salsa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1553 S Novato Blvd	open
Trek Winery	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		383 Midway Blvd	open
Vinny G's Pizza and Cocktails	Bar	Pizza · Italian	1535 S Novato Blvd	open
Wx Brands	Restaurant (service type not stated)		500 Redwood Blvd	open
YOSUMI RAMEN	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	934 Diablo Ave	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Bakery · Asian	900 Diablo Ave	open
California Grill & Rotisserie	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1531 S Novato Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	36	34	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	30	29	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	30	29	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	41	40	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	34	28	8	15	5	2	NAICS1997
1999	33	29	7	17	5	1	NAICS1997
2000	35	31	12	15	4	2	NAICS1997
2001	30	25	9	13	3	2	NAICS1997
2002	32	28	13	13	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	35	32	15	14	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	40	36	17	15	4	2	NAICS2002
2005	38	35	15	16	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	40	39	15	20	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	35	33	13	17	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	31	30	13	13	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	31	29	11	14	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	31	29	12	12	5	1	NAICS2007
2011	29	27	11	12	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	31	29	10	15	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	33	32	10	17	5	—	NAICS2012
2014	34	32	11	16	5	1	NAICS2012
2015	32	30	10	16	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	35	32	11	17	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	35	33	15	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	43	37	17	17	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	42	37	17	17	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	38	33	15	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	35	32	14	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	31	30	12	14	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	33	32	13	14	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94947. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94945	4.1 mi	50	2023
94946	4.4 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.