BMIE Market 94949

Marin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,787 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,183 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,955 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±421 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,202 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,282 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,758 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,046 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,760 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±283 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,150,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82,968 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94949
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-4.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+20.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 16–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.7 per year, r² 0.56) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94949. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.56, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.8	84	40%	+33.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.8	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	29.9	30	25%	+7.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,787	79	40%	+31.8
Median household income (ACS)	120,758	91	40%	+36.2
Households (ACS)	6,955	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.5	58	25%	+14.6
Population (ACS)	17,787	79	20%	+15.9
Median household income (ACS)	120,758	91	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	-4	19	20%	+3.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (68)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 8 · Sandwiches 6 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Mexican 5 · Asian 4 · Italian 4 · Burgers 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Japanese 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Pizza 3 · Sushi 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Thai 2 · Vegetarian 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 34 · Quick service 12 · Bar 8 · Café 8 · Winery / distillery / taproom 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Active Culture Active Culture	Café	Coffee · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	464 Ignacio Blvd	open
Adobe Creek Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		67 Galli Dr Ste e	open
Alco's Famous Market, Deli and Bakery	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	341 Enfrente Rd	open
Arun Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	385 Bel Marin Keys Blvd	open
Aurora Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	8 Commercial Blvd	open
Beso Bistro and Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	502 S Palm Dr	open
Biscotti Bari	Bakery	Bakery	448 Ignacio Blvd PMB 137	open
Blacksteer Steakhouse & Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	250 Entrada Dr	open
Boca Pizzeria - NOVATO	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	454 Ignacio Blvd	open
Boca Tavern Mi Cocina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American · Latin American (other)	340 Ignacio Blvd	open
Bread and Bones Supper	Restaurant (service type not stated)		31 Sunny Cove Dr	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	220 Alameda del Prado	open
Cafe Cruiser	Café	Coffee	8 Digital Dr	open
Cafe Joel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6 Hamilton Landing	open
Chicken Shack Fire Road	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings		open
Creekside Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	275 Marin Valley Dr	open
Deli 74	Restaurant (service type not stated)		19 Digital Dr	open
Dragon Cafe	Café	Coffee	528 Alameda Del Prado	open
Emit's Tavern	Bar		6 Alta Vista Ct	open
First Crush Restaurant And Bar Of Novato Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5800 Nave Dr Ste G	open
Forks & Fingers	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	372 Bel Marin Keys Blvd	open
Golden Creme Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	508 Alameda del Prado	open
Green Bamboo Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	471 Entrada Dr	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		301 Enfrente Rd	open
Jeremiah's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		41 Hamilton Dr	open
John & Jill's Cheesecake	Bakery	Bakery	4 Commercial Blvd Ste 2	open
Kalin Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		61 Galli Dr	open
Kazi Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		371 Bel Marin Keys Blvd	open
Kitchen	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	6 Hamilton Landing	open
Marin Coffee Roasters Marin Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	466 Ignacio Blvd	open
Maya Palenque Restaurant	Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	349 Enfrente Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5600 Nave Dr	open
Michael's Sourdough Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	42 Digital Dr	open
Napa Valley	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Nekter Juice Bar Nekter Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	5800 Nave Dr	open
Original Buffalo Wings Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	520 Alameda del Prado	open
Pacheco Ranch Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		235 Alameda del Prado	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5800 Nave Dr	open
Polly Ann Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11 Commercial Blvd	open
Red Boy Pizza Novato Red Boy Pizza Redwood Rd	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	459 Entrada Dr	open
Rita’s of 467 Entrada Dr-Novato CA Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	500 Alameda del Prado	open
Runway Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · American	6 Hamilton Lndg	open
Sacred Chocolate, Llc	Dessert	Dessert	24 Digital Dr Ste 10	open
Saffron Grill & Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	469 Entrada Dr	open
Sajess Bakery	Dessert	Dessert	1007 Green Oak Dr	open
San Francico Nut	Dessert	Dessert	20a Pimentel Ct # 5	open
Sonoma Latina Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5800 Nave Dr Ste D	open
Sourdough Sandwich Co. Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	5800 Nave Dr	open
Speakeasy Novato	Bar		504 Alameda del Prado	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Juice / smoothies · Asian	5720 Nave Drive	open
Starry Night Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		359 Bel Marin Keys Blvd Ste 5	open
Stephen Vincent Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		201 Alameda Del Prado Ste 102	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	476 Ignacio Blvd	open
Super Duper Burgers Super Duper Burgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	5800 Nave Dr	open
Sushi Tri	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	333 Enfrente Rd	open
Taki Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	452 Ignacio Blvd	open
Taqueria La Fiesta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	524 Alameda del Prado	open
Taqueria Real	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	354 Bel Marin Keys Blvd	open
Tavola Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5800 Nave Dr #C	open
Teriyaki Madness	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	5800 Nave Dr	open
Thailand Reataurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	5800 Nave Dr	open
Toast Restaurant The Friendly Toast	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5800 Nave Dr	open
WildFox Mesquite Fired Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	225 Alameda del Prado	open
Winery Exchange	Bar		35 Leveroni Ct	open
World Famous Hotboys Chicken World Famous Hotboys	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5800 Nave Dr Ste D	open
Yogen Fruz	Quick service		5800 Nave Dr Ste L	open
Headlands Ventures, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		55 Leveroni Ct	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	28	28	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	27	27	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	30	26	14	11	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	29	24	13	10	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	30	24	13	10	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	31	27	16	10	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	29	25	12	11	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	29	25	11	13	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	30	27	12	14	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	24	21	11	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	18	10	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	22	20	13	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	24	23	15	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	23	22	14	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	24	23	15	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	28	26	16	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	29	27	17	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	29	27	16	6	5	—	NAICS2012
2014	35	32	19	8	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	33	31	17	10	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	33	30	18	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	31	29	17	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	24	14	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	32	28	16	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	29	26	15	6	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	28	23	12	6	4	3	NAICS2017
2022	31	25	15	5	4	3	NAICS2022
2023	31	24	13	6	4	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94949. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94903	3.9 mi	48	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.