BMIE Market 94903
Marin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 30,615 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,536 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 12,013 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±621 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 29,040 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 12,603 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $142,083 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,444 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 49.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,993 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±276 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $1,197,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±45,625 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 19.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 48 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94903 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 14.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -15.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -2.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 51 (range 43–59) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94903. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 91.6 | 92 | 40% | +36.6 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 54.9 | 55 | 35% | +19.2 |
| Market Momentum Score | 16.7 | 17 | 25% | +4.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 30,615 | 89 | 40% | +35.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 142,083 | 95 | 40% | +38.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 12,013 | 89 | 20% | +17.8 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -15.8 | 16 | 35% | +5.5 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 15.7 | 50 | 25% | +12.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 30,615 | 89 | 20% | +17.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 142,083 | 95 | 20% | +19.0 |
Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -20 | 13 | 50% | +6.5 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -15.8 | 16 | 30% | +4.7 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 0 | 28 | 20% | +5.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (93)
By cuisine
Coffee 16 · American 13 · Sandwiches 11 · Asian 9 · Pizza 8 · Bakery 6 · Italian 6 · Mexican 6 · Japanese 5 · Chinese 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Sushi 4 · Burgers 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Thai 2 · Vietnamese 2 · African 1 · Breakfast 1 · European 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 63 · Café 15 · Bar 10 · Quick service 10 · Casual dining 8 · Coffee shop 8 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Fast casual 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Martians Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | Pizza · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 424 Las Gallinas Ave | open |
| A&W Restaurants A&W Singapore | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3741 Redwood Hwy | open |
| Aloh-o | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hawaiian / Pacific · Sushi · Japanese · Healthy / salads / bowls | 276 Northgate One | open |
| Applebee's Grill + Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5800 Northgate Mall Ste 8 | open | |
| Bagel Street Cafe Bagel Street Cafe - Blackhawk | Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 208 Northgate Dr one | open |
| Banh Mi Zon | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese · Asian | 605 Galerita Way | open |
| Banh Mi Zon Vietnamese Gourmet | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 76 San Pablo Ave | open |
| Big Rock Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café | Sandwiches · Coffee | 1500 Lucas Valley Rd | open |
| Biscuits & Buns | Bakery | Bakery | 641 Del Ganado Rd | open |
| BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5800 Northgate Dr, Ste 159 | open |
| Bjs | Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar | American | 5800 Northgate Dr | open |
| Black Bear Diner San Rafael Black Bear Diner | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 490 Las Gallinas Ave | open |
| Bogies Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 48 N San Pedro Rd | open | |
| Cafe 4040 | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee · Sandwiches | 4040 Civic Center Dr Suite120 | open |
| Calgang Thai Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 194 Northgate One | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 5800 Northgate Dr Ste 154 | open |
| Club Mic | Bar | Blackstone Dr, San Rafael , 94903, United States | open | |
| coteau pavot | Winery / distillery / taproom | 851 Hacienda Way | open | |
| Eduardo's Restaurant | Café | Coffee | 4200 Redwood Hwy | open |
| Eli's Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Coffee shop · Café | Sandwiches · Coffee | 200 N San Pedro Rd | open |
| Flying Subs Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4302 Redwood Hwy Ste 200 | open | |
| Forrest Fire BBQ | Catering · Food truck | BBQ | 4238 Redwood Hwy | open |
| Four-j Investment Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 418 Las Gallinas Ave | open | |
| Gaspare's Pizzeria Ristorante | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 200 Merrydale Rd | open |
| Gloria Jean's Coffees Gloria Jean's Coffees | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 1280 Northgate Dr | open |
| Green Beans Coffee Co Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4304 Redwood Hwy # 200 | open | |
| Grille 101 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 101 McInnis Pkwy | open |
| High Tech Burrito - San Rafael | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 484 Las Gallinas Ave | open |
| Hulu Wa Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4166 Redwood Hwy | open |
| Ikoi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 601 Del Ganado Rd | open |
| Jamba Jamba | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 266 Northgate One | open |
| Jelly Donuts Jelly Donut | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 244 Northgate One | open |
| Kasbah | Restaurant (service type not stated) | African | 200 Merrydale Rd | open |
| L J's Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 4380 Redwood Hwy B15 | open |
| La Hacienda San Rafael | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3815 Redwood Hwy | open |
| La Tarte | Bakery | Bakery | 633 Del Ganado Rd | open |
| La Toscana | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 3751 Redwood Hwy | open |
| Le Chalet Basque | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Spanish / tapas · European | 405 N San Pedro Rd | open |
| Letap Acquisitions Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4302 Redwood Hwy Ste 200 | open | |
| Lo Coco's Authentic Italian Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 631 Del Ganado Rd | open |
| Lou's Takeaway | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused · Casual dining | American | 621A Del Ganado Rd | open |
| Marin Comfort Kitchen | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 101 Mcinnis Pkwy | open |
| Marin Steak & Spirits Company | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 1010 Northgate Dr | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 190 Merrydale Rd | open |
| Medbar | Bar | 750 Las Gallinas Ave | open | |
| Mi Pueblo | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Latin American (other) · American | 5800 Northgate Dr Ste 138 | open |
| Mighty Leaf Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | open | |
| Mulberry Street Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 101 Smith Ranch Rd C | open |
| North Bay Subs Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4320 Redwood Hwy Ste 200 | open | |
| Orange Julius | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 5332 Northgate Dr | open |
| ORK House | Bar | 21 Roosevelt Ave | open | |
| Ounces Outdoors | Bar | 5800 Northgate Dr | open | |
| P&j Food Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5800 Northgate Dr Ste 138 | open | |
| Palio Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 4288 Redwood Hwy | open |
| Panchitos Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 667 Del Ganado Rd | open |
| Panda Express Panda Express México | Quick service | Chinese · Asian | 5800 Northgate Mall 142 142 | open |
| Panera Bread | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Café | Coffee · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 5800 Northgate Dr Ste 131 | open |
| Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 5800 Northgate Mall | open |
| Peking Wok | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 418 Las Gallinas Ave | open |
| Ping's Chinese Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 248 Northgate Dr one | open |
| Pizza Moremio | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 155 Marinwood Ave | open |
| Pjp Management Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4302 Redwood Hwy Ste 200 | open | |
| Plaza J Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | American · Coffee | 200 N San Pedro Rd | open |
| Pupuseria Blankita | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Latin American (other) | 48 N San Pedro Rd | open |
| Red Oak Craft Bar and Rotisserie | Casual dining · Bar | American | 101 McInnis Pkwy | open |
| Red Whale Coffee | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 169 Paul Dr. | open |
| Redwood Cafe | Café | Coffee · Breakfast · American | 175 Paul Dr. | open |
| Restaurants 101 Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 490 Las Gallinas Ave | open | |
| Roadside Bbq | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 5000 Northgate Dr # 135 | open |
| Roast Haus | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · American | Northgate One | open |
| Rocky's Quality Meats | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 71 San Pablo Ave | open |
| Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 186 Northgate Dr | open |
| Rustic Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 4342 Redwood HWY | open |
| Sakura Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 100 Smith Ranch Rd | open |
| Sbarro Sbarro | Quick service | Pizza · Italian | 5800 Northgate Dr | open |
| Silbermann's Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 196 Northgate Dr | open |
| Sizzler Restaurants | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3725 Redwood Hwy | open | |
| Smith Ranch Deli and Cafe | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café | Sandwiches · Coffee | 101 Smith Ranch Rd | open |
| Sonoma Taco Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 210 Northgate One | open |
| Sonora Taqueria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 649 Del Ganado Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 260 Northgate Dr | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 5800 Northgate Dr Ste FC7 | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 104 N San Pedro Rd | open |
| Subway | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 4050 Redwood Highway | open |
| Thai Kettle | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai | 621 Del Ganado Rd | open |
| The Club Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | American | 350 Smith Ranch Rd | open |
| The Habit Burger Grill The Habit Burger Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 496 Las Gallinas Ave | open |
| The Monk's Kettle Terra Linda The Monk's Kettle | Casual dining · Bar | 655 Del Ganado Rd | open | |
| Three Twins Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 641 Del Ganado Rd | open |
| Unique Jasmine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southeast Asian (other) · Japanese · Asian | 5800 Northgate Dr | open |
| Wetzel's Pretzels Wetzel's Pretzels | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Bakery | 5800 Northgate Mall Space 102 | open |
| ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 950 Las Gallinas Ave | open |
| Tpartea | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 5800 Northgate Dr | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 50 | 49 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 44 | 42 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 55 | 53 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 56 | 55 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 52 | 44 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 53 | 45 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 54 | 47 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 60 | 49 | 21 | 18 | 9 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 59 | 49 | 17 | 21 | 10 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 58 | 48 | 16 | 23 | 8 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 53 | 45 | 13 | 22 | 9 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 55 | 50 | 16 | 23 | 10 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 49 | 44 | 16 | 19 | 8 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 55 | 48 | 19 | 21 | 7 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 50 | 42 | 16 | 20 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 47 | 40 | 15 | 20 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 50 | 41 | 16 | 19 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 52 | 42 | 14 | 21 | 6 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 66 | 53 | 18 | 26 | 8 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 70 | 57 | 21 | 26 | 9 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 70 | 55 | 18 | 28 | 8 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 70 | 56 | 18 | 29 | 8 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 75 | 60 | 21 | 29 | 9 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 71 | 61 | 23 | 30 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 69 | 60 | 23 | 30 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 68 | 60 | 20 | 34 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 67 | 61 | 22 | 35 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 58 | 53 | 19 | 27 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 56 | 51 | 22 | 21 | 8 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 53 | 48 | 20 | 20 | 8 | — | NAICS2022 |