BMIE Market 94930

Marin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,406 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±255 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,565 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±215 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,500 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,023 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$145,362 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,571 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,397 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,170,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±58,032 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94930
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+52.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+73.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 22–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94930. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.4	79	40%	+31.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.0	59	35%	+20.7
Market Momentum Score	42.5	43	25%	+10.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,406	68	40%	+27.3
Median household income (ACS)	145,362	96	40%	+38.2
Households (ACS)	3,565	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	35%	+21.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	30.9	19	25%	+4.8
Population (ACS)	8,406	68	20%	+13.6
Median household income (ACS)	145,362	96	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.1	21	50%	+10.5
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	30%	+18.5
20-year restaurant growth	52.9	68	20%	+13.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (51)

By cuisine

Coffee 11 · Italian 5 · American 4 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Vegetarian 3 · Burgers 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Bar 17 · Café 9 · Casual dining 8 · Coffee shop 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
123 Bolinas	Bar		123 Bolinas Rd	open
Amélie Café and Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	71 Broadway	open
Bah Mi Ba	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese	1 Bolinas Rd	open
Barefoot Cafe	Café	Coffee · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	1900 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Bootleggers Vip Room	Bar			open
Cafe Lotus	Café	Indian · Vegetarian · Coffee	1912 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Cazadero Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		13 Meadow Way	open
Cazadero Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		13 Meadow Way	open
Coffeeis.me	Coffee shop	Coffee	303 Oak Manor Dr	open
Donna's Tamales	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7 Marin Rd	open
Fairfax Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	31 Bolinas Rd	open
Fairfax Scoop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	63 Broadway	open
Fairfix Restaurant, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		33 Broadway Blvd	open
Fradelizio's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	35 Broadway Blvd	open
Gestalt Haus	Casual dining · Bar		28 Bolinas Rd	open
Ghiringhelli's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	45 Broadway Blvd	open
Grilly's Fairfax	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1 Bolinas Rd	open
Henhouse Brewing Company West County Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		765 Center Blvd	open
James Warren Perry Art Studio	Bar		3000 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Java Hut	Coffee shop	Coffee	760 Center Blvd	open
La Gastronomia	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	123 Bolinas Rd	open
Lord Fairfix Cafe & Tap	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee	33 Broadway Blvd	open
M & E Property & Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		367 Bolinas Rd	open
M & G Burgers	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	2017 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Mac's	Bar		19 Broadway	open
Más Masa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	31 Bolinas Rd	open
Mauro's Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1601 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Miyokos Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	1966 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Myx Cocktail Lounge	Bar		Broadway Blvd	open
Nave's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		20 Bolinas Rd	open
Pancho Villa’s Mexican Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1625 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Peri's Silver Dollar Bar	Bar		29 Broadway Blvd	open
Peri's Tavern	Bar		29 Broadway	open
Public House Marin	Casual dining · Bar		743 Center Blvd	open
Red Boy Pizza Red Boy Pizza Redwood Rd	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2404 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Salt-N-Pepper Sandwich & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Sandwiches · Burgers	1916 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Santori Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		420 Scenic Rd	open
Siam Lotus My Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	25 Broadway Blvd	open
Sleeping Lady Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	64 Bolinas Rd	open
Sola Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		769 Center Blvd Ste 42	open
Sorella Caffe	Café · Coffee shop	Italian · Coffee	107 Bolinas Rd	open
Svensgalley Llc Dba Mauros Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1601 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Tamal	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	23 Broadway Blvd	open
Taste Kitchen & Table	Café	Coffee	71 Broadway Blvd	open
The Coffee Roastery	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4 Bolinas Rd	open
The Hummingbird	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	57 Broadway Blvd	open
Village Sake	Bar	Japanese · Sushi	19 Bolinas Rd	open
Way Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2001 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Wu Wei Tea Temple	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	1820 Sir Francis Drake Blvd	open
Avatars Punjabi Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	715 Center	closed
Fat Angel Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	71 Broadway Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	25	24	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	23	22	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	24	20	16	3	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	25	22	17	3	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	22	20	15	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	18	16	13	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	17	15	12	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	18	17	14	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	21	18	16	2	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	23	20	14	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	26	23	15	7	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	26	21	13	6	2	4	NAICS2002
2008	26	22	15	4	3	3	NAICS2007
2009	27	23	16	4	3	3	NAICS2007
2010	25	19	12	4	3	5	NAICS2007
2011	24	19	11	5	3	4	NAICS2007
2012	27	22	13	5	4	4	NAICS2012
2013	26	22	13	5	4	3	NAICS2012
2014	30	24	15	5	4	4	NAICS2012
2015	30	22	13	5	4	5	NAICS2012
2016	32	23	12	8	3	5	NAICS2012
2017	30	25	13	7	5	4	NAICS2017
2018	34	28	15	8	5	5	NAICS2017
2019	30	25	15	7	3	4	NAICS2017
2020	31	25	17	5	3	5	NAICS2017
2021	29	23	14	5	4	5	NAICS2017
2022	27	22	14	4	4	5	NAICS2022
2023	31	26	16	5	5	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94930. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94960	2.8 mi	31	2023
94957	2.9 mi	4	2023
94941	3.2 mi	63	2023
94973	3.2 mi	1	1996
94963	3.8 mi	2	2016
94904	3.8 mi	14	2023
94970	3.9 mi	3	2023
94903	4.7 mi	48	2023
94939	4.8 mi	30	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.