BMIE Market 94951

Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,294 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±531 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,419 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±191 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,124 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,794 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$106,332 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,697 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,904 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±404 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,207,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±66,867 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94951
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 4–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	51 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94951. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.4	66	40%	+26.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.9	56	35%	+19.6
Market Momentum Score	50.7	51	25%	+12.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,294	54	40%	+21.5
Median household income (ACS)	106,332	85	40%	+33.9
Households (ACS)	1,419	55	20%	+11.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.1	64	25%	+16.0
Population (ACS)	3,294	54	20%	+10.7
Median household income (ACS)	106,332	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Bakery 3 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · American 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bar 5 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Corte Riva Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1724 Alan Dr	open
Denman Ranch	Winery / distillery / taproom		111 Goodwin Ave	open
Full Circle Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	10151 Main St	open
JavAmore Cafe	Coffee shop · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Bakery · Sandwiches · Mexican	10101 Main St	open
Macks	Bar		10056 Petaluma Hill Rd	open
Mama J's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10101 Main St	open
Odd Cookie Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	10000 Main St	open
Panther Ridge Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		5252 Lichau Rd	open
Penngrove Pub	Bar		10005 Main St	open
Penngrove Vineyards LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		6900 Pressley Rd	open
Pho-King Delicious	Restaurant (service type not stated)		123 Sesame St	open
Sonoma Aperitif	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		111 Goodwin Ave	open
Superburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10060 Main St.	open
The Grove	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		10056 Main St	open
TipTop Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10007 Main St	open
Twin Oaks Roadhouse	Casual dining · Bar	American	5745 Old Redwood Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	4	1	1	—	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	5	2	1	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	6	2	1	—	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	4	2	1	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	5	2	1	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	4	1	—	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	4	1	—	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	4	1	—	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	3	1	—	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	3	2	1	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	3	2	1	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	3	2	1	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	4	3	2	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	4	3	2	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94951. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94928	3.1 mi	102	2023
94931	3.9 mi	38	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.