BMIE Market 94931

Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,487 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±588 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,072 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±388 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,470 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,677 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,994 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,080 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,913 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$820,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	38 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 94931
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	33.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+58.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+81.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+137.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	43 (range 40–47) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.1 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	81 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 94931. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.2	75	40%	+30.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.8	64	35%	+22.3
Market Momentum Score	80.8	81	25%	+20.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,487	70	40%	+28.0
Median household income (ACS)	101,994	82	40%	+32.9
Households (ACS)	4,072	71	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	58.3	86	35%	+30.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	40.1	13	25%	+3.3
Population (ACS)	9,487	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	101,994	82	20%	+16.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.6	79	50%	+39.6
10-year restaurant growth	58.3	86	30%	+25.7
20-year restaurant growth	81.0	77	20%	+15.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (74)

By cuisine

American 10 · Asian 10 · Coffee 7 · Pizza 7 · Bakery 6 · Burgers 6 · Mexican 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Latin American (other) 5 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Japanese 3 · Thai 3 · Mediterranean 2 · Sushi 2 · Vietnamese 2 · BBQ 1 · Brazilian 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Korean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 50 · Quick service 9 · Bar 8 · Café 7 · Bakery 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Dessert 3 · Casual dining 2 · Other 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Acme Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	550 E Cotati Ave	open
Acre Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8175 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Bear Korean Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Chinese · Asian	8577 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	8510 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Cafe Salsa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	8230 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Cape Cod Fish N' Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food · Seafood	7530 Commerce Blvd	open
China Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	7991 Old Redwood Hwy	open
China Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	8501 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Cotati Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8225 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Cotija's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7981 Old Redwood Hwy	open
D & D Deli-Liquor /Coffee	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Middle Eastern	8492 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Donna Brazilian Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Brazilian · Latin American (other)	El Rancho Dr	open
Dos Amigos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8197 LA Plz	open
Down To Earth Cafe And Deli	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	8204 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Eight Ball	Bar		8 Charles St	open
El Paso Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	8282 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Falafel House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	548 E Cotati Ave	open
Flagship Taproom	Bar		8099 La Plz	open
Fregene's Pizza - Cotati	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	554 E Cotati Ave #B	open
Friar Tuck's	Bar		8201 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Friar Tucks Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		570 E Cotati Ave	open
Fu Zhou Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	572 E Cotati Ave	open
Gaby's Cake Supplies	Bakery	Bakery	7500 Commerce Blvd	open
Haas Wood &#x26 Ivory Works, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		531 Mercantile Dr	open
Harvest Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	7582 Commerce Blvd	open
Imposter Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Vegetarian · American	8252 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Jam's Joy Bungalow	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	101 E Cotati Ave	open
Jelly Doughnut	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	8575 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	640 E. Cotati Ave. Unit B	open
Johnny's Java Cotati	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	8492 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Karah Estate Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1010 W Railroad Ave	open
Libarle Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		9100 Poplar Ave	open
Lombardi Wine com	Bar		101 E Cotati Ave	open
Luigi's Bbq & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	101 E Cotati Ave	open
Lynn's Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	8492 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Mai Vietnamese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	8492 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Marvin's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7991 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Masala Jack's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	7981 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Mi Pueblo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7384 Commerce Blvd	open
Mi Ranchito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7600 Commerce Blvd	open
Mike's At the Crossroads	Bar	Burgers · American	7667 Old Redwood Hwy #5132	open
Nagomi Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8235 Old Redwood Hwy	open
New Times Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Pizza	7582 Commerce Boulevard	open
North Bay Sourdough Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	7530 Commerce Blvd Ste d	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	590 E Cotati Ave	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8005 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Peet's Coffee Peet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7764 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Qsrrp Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		170 E Cotati Ave	open
Red Bird Bakery Red Bird Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	556 E Cotati Ave	open
Redwood Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	8240 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Ruthy's Real Meals Home Delivery & Take Out	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Mexican	8492 Gravenstein Hwy	open
Saigon Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Japanese · Asian	548 E Cotati Ave	open
Sal's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8270 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Sally Tomatoes	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8238 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Shige	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	8235 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Sift Dessert Bar in Cotati	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	7582 Commerce Blvd	open
Sonoma Korean Baptist Church	Restaurant (service type not stated)		81 W Cotati Ave	open
Spancky's	Bar		8201 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Spring Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	8099 La Plz Ste A	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	640 E Cotati Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	8500 Gravenstein Hwy Unit B	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	640 E Cotati Ave Ste 3	open
Superburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	8204 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Sweet Lou's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8201 Old Redwood Hwy	open
The Cotati Crawl	Bar		The Cotati Strip	open
The Flakey Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	8492 Gravenstein Hwy	open
The Goode Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		361 Blodgett St	open
The Tradewinds	Bar		8210 Old Redwood Hwy	open
The Twins Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	572 E Cotati Ave	open
Tiny Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	8238 Old Redwood Hwy	open
Your Sweet Expectations	Bakery	Bakery	8099 La Plz Ste A	open
Zaina's Bellini Cafe	Café	Coffee · Mediterranean · Breakfast	7981 Old Redwood Hwy A	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	546 E Cotati Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	16	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	22	16	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	29	23	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	33	26	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1998	35	26	15	10	1	7	NAICS1997
1999	32	23	14	8	1	7	NAICS1997
2000	38	27	15	10	2	8	NAICS1997
2001	37	26	14	10	2	8	NAICS1997
2002	33	24	13	10	1	7	NAICS1997
2003	31	21	12	9	—	7	NAICS2002
2004	37	27	17	10	—	7	NAICS2002
2005	36	25	16	8	1	7	NAICS2002
2006	36	24	12	9	3	8	NAICS2002
2007	37	26	13	10	3	7	NAICS2002
2008	34	24	14	6	4	6	NAICS2007
2009	34	25	14	6	5	5	NAICS2007
2010	36	28	18	6	4	4	NAICS2007
2011	33	25	16	5	4	4	NAICS2007
2012	34	27	15	6	6	3	NAICS2012
2013	35	24	14	5	5	7	NAICS2012
2014	43	31	21	5	5	8	NAICS2012
2015	40	30	18	7	5	5	NAICS2012
2016	40	28	16	9	3	5	NAICS2012
2017	42	32	19	9	4	5	NAICS2017
2018	43	31	19	8	4	6	NAICS2017
2019	44	32	21	7	4	6	NAICS2017
2020	43	34	22	8	4	5	NAICS2017
2021	44	36	23	8	5	4	NAICS2017
2022	43	36	24	6	6	4	NAICS2022
2023	44	38	24	8	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 94931. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
94928	1.9 mi	102	2023
94951	3.9 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.