BMIE Market 95018

Santa Cruz County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,594 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±792 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,799 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±265 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,778 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,642 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$129,464 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,862 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,165 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±245 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$838,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±48,511 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95018
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-37.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-9.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.8 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95018. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.2	76	40%	+30.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.5	48	35%	+16.6
Market Momentum Score	12.8	13	25%	+3.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,594	65	40%	+25.9
Median household income (ACS)	129,464	93	40%	+37.2
Households (ACS)	2,799	66	20%	+13.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-37.5	9	35%	+3.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.2	52	25%	+13.0
Population (ACS)	6,594	65	20%	+12.9
Median household income (ACS)	129,464	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-28.6	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	-37.5	9	30%	+2.6
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · American 4 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Japanese 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 6 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Castelli's Deli Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	6965 Highway 9	open
Cowboy Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	5447 Hwy 9	open
Cream + Sugar	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Dessert · Coffee	7701 E Zayante Rd	open
Don Quixote's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6275 Highway 9	open
Empire Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	6155 Hwy 9	open
Felton - 6267 Graham Hill Road Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6267 Graham Hill Road	open
Felton Donuts & Pastries	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	6259 Graham Hill Rd	open
I Wok Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	6112 Highway 9	open
Mama Mia's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	6231 Graham Hill Rd	open
Monty's Log Cabin	Bar		5755 Hwy 9	open
Mountain Roasting Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	6263 Graham Hill Rd	open
Redwood Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6205 CA-9	open
Rocky's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	6560 Hwy 9	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6267 Graham Hill Rd	open
Sushi San	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	6231 Graham Hill Rd	open
Taqueria Vallarta	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6272 Highway 9	open
The Cremer House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6256 Highway 9	open
The Grove Cafe and Bakery	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	6249 CA-9	open
The Organic Wine Works	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		379 Felton Empire Rd	open
The Tavern Humble Sea Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		6256 Highway 9	open
White Raven	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	6253 Hwy 9	open
Zayante Creek Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	9210 E Zayante Rd	open
Zayante Vineyards	Bar		420 Old Mount Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	14	11	5	4	2	3	NAICS1997
1999	12	10	4	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	14	11	5	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	6	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	13	8	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	15	14	8	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	9	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	6	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	7	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	9	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	9	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	19	18	11	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	14	9	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	17	16	11	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	15	14	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	14	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	7	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	10	4	5	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95018. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95005	1.9 mi	4	2023
95041	2.3 mi	1	2006
95066	2.8 mi	40	2023
95007	3.5 mi	1	2010

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.