BMIE Market 95206

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	68,558 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,577 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	17,629 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±624 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	65,004 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	17,923 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$83,432 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,849 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,592 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$424,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,401 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	133.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	43 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95206
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+26.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+34.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+43.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+87.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	47 (range 44–50) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.1 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	75 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95206. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.4	85	40%	+34.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.0	81	35%	+28.4
Market Momentum Score	75.3	75	25%	+18.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	68,558	99	40%	+39.7
Median household income (ACS)	83,432	66	40%	+26.5
Households (ACS)	17,629	96	20%	+19.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	34.4	75	35%	+26.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.3	87	25%	+21.8
Population (ACS)	68,558	99	20%	+19.8
Median household income (ACS)	83,432	66	20%	+13.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	26.5	82	50%	+40.9
10-year restaurant growth	34.4	75	30%	+22.4
20-year restaurant growth	43.3	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (110)

By cuisine

Mexican 33 · Latin American (other) 14 · American 10 · Pizza 8 · Chicken / wings 7 · Chinese 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Bakery 5 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Asian 3 · Italian 3 · Seafood 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Filipino 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 72 · Quick service 24 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 7 · Food truck 7 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Amigas Pupuseria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	717 W 8th St	open
8th St Market & Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		720 W 8th St	open
A&W Restaurant	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		134 E Dr Martin Luther King Jr Blvd	open
Acapulco Gardens Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1650 S El Dorado St	open
Alexis Tortilleria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2070 S El Dorado St	open
Amazing Ice Cream	Dessert	Dessert	2751 Boeing Way	open
Betto's Birrieria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	608 E Charter Way	open
Birrieria Jalisco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2619 S El Dorado St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	619 West Charter Way	open
Calientay asrm MuKbang	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	649 Houston Ave	open
Campesino Cafe	Café	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Coffee	322 E Dr Martin Luther King Jr Blvd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	939 W Charter Way	open
Carnitas el Bajio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	720 W 8th St	open
Charly's Super Tortas Chilangas #2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1546 S El Dorado St	open
Chicago's Pizza With A Twist	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Vegan	1789 W Charter Way	open
China Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	3526 Manthey Rd	open
China Express at food4less (march lane)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese		open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		743 Carolyn Weston Blvd	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	110 Doctor M.L.K. Jr. Boulevard	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	642 West Charter Way	open
Diego's King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1641 Terra Vista Ln	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	402 E Charter Way	open
Duraflame Warehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2533 S Airport Way	open
Eddie's Pizza Cafe	Café	Pizza · Italian · Coffee	1419 S El Dorado St	open
El Charro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
El Comal	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3100 Boeing Way	open
El Dorado Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Mexican · Sandwiches	1240 S El Dorado St	open
El Gusto Jugos Y Antojitos	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Juice / smoothies	10 Doctor M.L.K. Jr Blvd	open
El Jaliciense	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1420 S California St	open
El Patio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	2703 S El Dorado St	open
El Patrons	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar		720 W 8th St	open
El Rinconcito Chiapaneco	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	580 Doctor M.L.K. Jr Blvd	open
Fiesta Mexicana Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	2030 S El Dorado St	open
Gladis Taqueria Y Pupuseria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1522 S Lincoln St	open
Gladys Taqueria Y Pupuseria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	717 Ralph Ave	open
Golden Star Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2121 S El Dorado St	open
Harry's Cocktail Lounge	Bar		407 E Charter Wy	open
Harry's Pizza Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	619 E Dr Martin Luther King Jr Blvd	open
Helados Guadalajara Inc.	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	837 Performance Dr	open
Hot Cakes Restaurant Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		642 W Dr Martin Luther King Jr Blvd	open
Ish&i’s Gourmet Food Truck	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	3923 S B St	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		733 W Charter WY	open
Jose'S Birrieria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2619 S El Dorado St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	134 East Charter Way	open
Kosmos Burgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	720 E Charter Wy	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4850 South Hwy 99	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1789 West Charter Way	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5777 S French Camp Rd	open
La Casita Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4646 Qantas Ln	open
La Cocina Chiapaneca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chinese	580 E Charter Way	open
La Korita	Food truck	Mexican	Performance Dr	open
La Paradita Ricos antojitos Mexicanos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2955 S El Dorado St Spc #2	open
La Posada Del Pescador	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1036 S Center St	open
Limonense Taco Truck	Food truck	Mexican	1790 W Charter Way	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	353 W Charter Way	open
Lotus Mediterranean Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	580 W Dr Martin Luther King Jr Blvd	open
Louie's Chinese Restaurant Louie's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3538 Manthey Rd E5	open
Lupitas Bar	Bar · Casual dining		1800 W Charter Way	open
Madison Wine Company	Bar		241 Frank West Cir Ste 100	open
Mandeep And Gurpreet Partners	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1789 W Charter Way	open
Manila Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · Asian	3550 S Manthey Rd A	open
Mariscos Mazatlan	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	1901 S El Dorado St	open
Mariscos Pablo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	1036 S Center St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		563 Carolyn Weston Blvd.	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	611 W Charter Way	open
Mestizo's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican		open
Micheladas El Patron	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	720 W 8th St	open
Missouri's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	572 Carolyn Weston Blvd	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3526 Manthey Rd	open
Nena's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chinese	2208 S B St	open
On the Scene Cuisine	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2707 Transworld Dr	open
Paleteria El pastor Michoacano	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	315 Doctor M.L.K. Jr Blvd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Sandwiches · Bakery	2414 Boeing Way	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	3550 Manthey Road	open
Pete's Cafe	Casual dining · Bar	American	7001-9499 California 4	open
Pho lucky	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese	El dorado	open
Pollos Asados “Canelo’s”	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2031 S El Dorado St	open
Popeyes Popeyes	Quick service		201 Doctor M.L.K. Jr. Blvd	open
Primos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2201 S B St	open
Rainbow Outlet	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2651 S Airport Way	open
Raspados Y Mas	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Latin American (other)	225 E Charter Way	open
Re Cycle To Conserve Inc	Bakery	Bakery	704 Zephyr St	open
Seven Up Bottling Co	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar	Juice / smoothies	1109 W Anderson St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	760 W Charter Way	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	721 Carolyn Weston Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1789 W Charter Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3526 Manthey Rd Suite D	open
Sun's Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	721 E Charter Wy	open
SUPER STAR BURGER	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	605 Doctor M.L.K. Jr Blvd	open
Sweetz Paradise	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	3526 Manthey Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	864 W Charter Way	open
Taco Fiesta Taco Fiesta	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	605 E Charter Way	open
Taco Loco	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3923 S B St	open
Tacos El Autentico	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Mexican	3364 Manthey Rd	open
Tacos el Mayita	Food truck			open
Tacos La Kora 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	Alitalia Ave	open
Taqueria El Grullense	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1347 S El Dorado St	open
Taqueria la Bella	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	101 Doctor M.L.K. Jr Blvd	open
Texas Fried Chicken, Texas Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)		520 Carolyn Weston Blvd	open
The Blues Lounge	Bar		1522 S Lincoln St	open
Tiki Lagoon Bar And Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	12988 W McDonald Rd	open
Togo's TOGO'S Sandwiches	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5777 French Camp Rd	open
Top Flight Grill & Catering	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5000 S Airport Way	open
Toro Bravo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	572 Carolyn Weston Blvd	open
Union Point Marina Bar & Grill	Bar			open
United Paleteria & Neveria United Paleteria y Neveria - San Leandro	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Latin American (other) · Dessert	720 W 8th St	open
Windmill Cove Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		7600 Windmill Cove Rd	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	520 Carolyn Weston Blvd Ste A	open
Yum Yum Donuts Yum Yum Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	544 E Charter Wy	open
𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘀 𝗲𝗹 𝗣𝗲ó𝗻	Food truck			open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	30	23	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1995	27	22	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	32	26	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	35	29	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	40	27	12	13	2	6	NAICS1997
1999	40	26	12	12	2	7	NAICS1997
2000	38	29	11	16	2	5	NAICS1997
2001	37	28	13	14	1	6	NAICS1997
2002	43	30	16	14	—	7	NAICS1997
2003	39	30	16	14	—	5	NAICS2002
2004	33	26	13	13	—	4	NAICS2002
2005	36	29	12	17	—	4	NAICS2002
2006	39	34	16	17	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	39	35	16	17	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	35	33	15	17	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	33	31	15	15	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	34	33	19	13	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	34	33	18	14	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	31	30	14	15	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	33	32	14	16	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	33	31	14	16	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	38	34	13	18	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	38	34	13	18	2	3	NAICS2012
2017	38	35	13	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	36	34	12	18	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	40	37	15	18	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	43	41	15	20	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	45	40	13	21	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	44	39	9	23	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	46	43	9	25	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95206. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95203	4.8 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.