BMIE Market 95203

San Joaquin County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,930 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,418 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,392 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±356 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,696 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,959 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$63,411 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,496 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,312 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±88 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$370,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,911 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95203
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-26.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-21.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-38.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95203. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.5	61	40%	+24.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.6	51	35%	+17.7
Market Momentum Score	13.2	13	25%	+3.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,930	78	40%	+31.0
Median household income (ACS)	63,411	36	40%	+14.4
Households (ACS)	5,392	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	35%	+6.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.9	85	25%	+21.2
Population (ACS)	15,930	78	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	63,411	36	20%	+7.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-26.7	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	30%	+5.8
20-year restaurant growth	-21.4	13	20%	+2.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

Mexican 10 · Coffee 5 · Latin American (other) 4 · American 3 · Asian 3 · Chinese 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Bar 8 · Café 4 · Quick service 4 · Food truck 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Little Bit Of Everything	Food truck		1748 W Fremont St	open
Bennet's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	912 N Yosemite St	open
Chimulita Super Tacos Dorados	Food truck · Catering	Halal / kosher		open
China Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	935 N Yosemite St	open
Chitiva's Salsa and Sports Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	445 W Weber Ave	open
Delroy's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Cajun, Creole, Southern	305 fyffe Ave	open
Fatboy's Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		567 W Fremont St	open
Fondita Elisa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Breakfast	2650 Monte Diablo Ave	open
Galaxy night club restaurant bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		315 S Hunter St	open
Golden Burger Stockton	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	536 E Hazelton Ave	open
Golden Rice Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	536 E Hazelton Ave	open
La Jamaica	Restaurant (service type not stated)		609 S Lincoln St	open
la Sirena Restaurant and Sports Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other)	315 S Hunter St	open
La Vaca En Brasas	Bar	Steakhouse · Spanish / tapas	455 W Weber Ave Suite 122	open
Legendary Coffee And Books	Coffee shop	Coffee	445 W Weber Ave Ste 144a	open
Lonchera Tacos El Piolin	Food truck	Mexican	2727 Monte Diablo Ave	open
Lovotti Pizza Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	946 N Yosemite St	open
Magda's Cakes	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	1119 W Fremont St	open
Mariscos El Cachanilla	Restaurant (service type not stated)		445 W Weber Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	322 S Center	open
Metro Pizza & Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches	1820 Monte Diablo Ave	open
Mi Ranchito Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	425 S Center St	open
Nena's BBQ & Delights	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	445 W Weber Ave Ste 126	open
Noche Bohemia Nenas Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	445 W Weber Ave	open
NovelTea Events and Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	445 W Weber Ave	open
On Lock Sam	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	333 S Sutter St	open
SHAW 4 Community	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	445 W Weber Ave	open
Sho Mi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		419 S Lincoln St	open
Smoke & Meat BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	915 N Yosemite St	open
Stockton Alano Club	Bar		1812 Monte Diablo Ave	open
Sun Wong Kee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	333 S Hunter St	open
Tacos Catrina	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Tacos Trinidad	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2650 Monte Diablo Ave	open
Taqueria Chapala	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	205 S Fresno Ave	open
Taquería Dos Hermanos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	448 S Hunter St	open
The Bus Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
The House of Pita (Stockton)	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Mediterranean	445 W Weber Ave #126	open
The SHAW Bar	Bar		1305 Buena Vista Ave	open
The SHAW Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	445 W Weber Ave #134	open
The Shipyard Portside	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2305 W Washington St	open
The Victory Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1765 Monte Diablo Ave	open
T R Willard Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1810 Field Ave Ste 5	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	18	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	19	17	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	15	12	9	3	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	17	14	10	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	16	14	9	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	18	14	11	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	18	14	10	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	17	14	10	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	17	15	8	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	19	17	12	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	20	11	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	18	16	10	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	16	11	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	13	7	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	14	8	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	15	11	1	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	11	8	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	12	8	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	9	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	15	10	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	15	9	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	10	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	17	9	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	16	8	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	24	15	8	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	22	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95203. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95204	1.5 mi	39	2023
95211	2.0 mi	1	2011
95202	2.3 mi	30	2023
95207	3.3 mi	127	2023
95205	3.9 mi	42	2023
95206	4.8 mi	43	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.