BMIE Market 95326

Stanislaus County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,593 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±795 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,906 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±412 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,581 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,328 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,800 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,612 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$533,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52,803 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95326
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	81 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95326. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.1	71	40%	+28.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.2	81	35%	+28.4
Market Momentum Score	81.0	81	25%	+20.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,593	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	87,500	71	40%	+28.3
Households (ACS)	3,906	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.6	82	25%	+20.5
Population (ACS)	10,593	72	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	87,500	71	20%	+14.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 6 · Mexican 5 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3rd Street Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2413 3rd street	open
Agave Azul Kitchen & Tequila Bar	Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6724 E Whitmore Ave	open
Anjellak Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		7012 Willow St	open
Beers and Beards Taproom	Bar		6801 Hughson Ave	open
Bob's Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Casual dining · Café	Coffee · American	6900 Hughson Ave	open
Coco's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	6916 Hughson Ave	open
Dairy Farmers of America	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2331 Tully Rd	open
El Fuego	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6901 Hughson Ave Ste B	open
Golden Bowl Golden Bowl Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7144 Hughson Ave	open
Hamilton's	Casual dining	American	7313 Hughson Ave	open
Hughson Asian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese · Chinese	6902 Hughson Ave	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2468 3Rd Street	open
La Chinola Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	6901 Hughson Ave b	open
La Rosa & Sons	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6418 E Whitmore Ave	open
Main Street Deli & Bakery	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6724 E Whitmore Ave Ste J	open
Main Street Sweets	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2413 3rd St	open
Mariscos Taqueria La Palmita	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	2224 Santa Fe Ave	open
Pizza Factory Pizza Factory, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	6901 Hughson Ave	open
Ranch Hand By Slick Fork	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	6901 Hughson Ave	open
Rico's Italian Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6724 E Whitmore Ave #9648	open
Rico’s Pizza Hughson	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	6724 E Whitmore Ave	open
Slick Fork BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	2400 Santa Fe Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	6724 E Whitmore Ave Ste B	open
Taqueria La Guadalupana RM	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4342 Geer Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	3	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	4	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95326. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95319	3.2 mi	1	2007
95328	3.7 mi	1	2016
95382	4.3 mi	50	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.