BMIE Market 95382
Stanislaus County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 39,083 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,437 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 13,759 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±481 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 36,176 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 13,132 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $95,282 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,746 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 37.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,829 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±72 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $491,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,535 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 10.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 50 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95382 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 8.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +38.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +78.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +316.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 59 (range 51–67) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.2 per year, r² 0.54) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95382. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.54, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 86.9 | 87 | 40% | +34.8 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 76.3 | 76 | 35% | +26.7 |
| Market Momentum Score | 59.2 | 59 | 25% | +14.8 |
Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 39,083 | 94 | 40% | +37.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 95,282 | 78 | 40% | +31.1 |
| Households (ACS) | 13,759 | 92 | 20% | +18.4 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 38.9 | 77 | 35% | +26.8 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 12.8 | 61 | 25% | +15.3 |
| Population (ACS) | 39,083 | 94 | 20% | +18.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 95,282 | 78 | 20% | +15.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 38.9 | 77 | 30% | +23.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 78.6 | 77 | 20% | +15.4 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (103)
By cuisine
American 17 · Pizza 12 · Mexican 10 · Asian 9 · Coffee 8 · Bakery 7 · Burgers 7 · Dessert 7 · Italian 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Healthy / salads / bowls 5 · Mediterranean 5 · Chinese 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Japanese 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Middle Eastern 3 · Sushi 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Indian 1 · Korean 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegan 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 59 · Quick service 21 · Casual dining 9 · Dessert 9 · Bar 8 · Bakery 7 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Food truck 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Specialty food shop 4 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afc Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 2900 Geer Rd | open |
| AJ's Cafe & Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 2800 Geer Rd | open |
| Alcatraz burger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 3831 Crowell Rd | open |
| Angelini's Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 2251 Geer Rd | open |
| Azores Desert Cafe’ | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 3367 Summer Creek Dr | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2590 Geer Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 6001 N Golden State Blvd | open |
| Cafe Rome | Café · Coffee shop | Coffee | 900 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Cafe Rome | Coffee shop | Coffee | 3807 Crowell Rd | open |
| Cajun Bento | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · Asian | 3821 Crowell Rd | open |
| Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr. | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2980 GEER RD | open |
| Carnitas Purepecha | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 2430 Geer Rd | open |
| Carnivore's Bbq Sandwich Shop | Other | Sandwiches | 2685 Geer Rd | open |
| Center St. Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Bar | American | open | |
| China Buffet | Buffet | Chinese · Asian | 2850 Geer Rd | open |
| China Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 2430 Geer Rd | open |
| Corn'd Korean Corndogs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Asian | 2677 Geer Rd | open |
| D & E Bar and grill | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2900 Dels Ln | open | |
| Daraman | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian | 1050 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Dean's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2390 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 1211 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County | Coffee shop · Quick service · Café | Coffee | 1201 W. Monte Vista Ave | open |
| El Asadero Taco Shop El Asadero Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 150 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Figaro's Pizza Figaro's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2028 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Fire Temple | Bar | 3841 Crowell Rd | open | |
| Fire Wings Turlock Fire Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Chicken / wings · American | 1050 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Friendly House Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 2231 Geer Rd | open |
| Frost Bakery And Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2014 W Monte Vista Ave | open | |
| Fuji Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 2022 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Gianna's Homebaked Goods | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 525 Sunnyhill Dr | open |
| GK Mongolian BBQ GK Mongolian BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · BBQ | 2300 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Golden China Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 2525 Geer Rd | open |
| Green Grub | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 2922 Geer Rd | open |
| Grizzly Rock Cafe | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4905 N Golden State Blvd | open |
| House Of Kabob | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 2618 N Golden State Blvd | open |
| Huckleberry's Huckleberry's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 3191 Geer Rd | open |
| Hummus Republic Hummus Republic | Fast casual | Mediterranean · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 1207 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| India Oven | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2300 W Monte Vista Ave | open | |
| Ishtar Mediterranean Market and Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Mediterranean | 2340 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Jack in the Box | Quick service | 2601 Geer Rd | open | |
| Jams at 209 Sports Bar and Grill | Bar · Casual dining | 2317 Geer Rd | open | |
| Javi's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 118 E Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Jem Juicery | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies · Vegan · Healthy / salads / bowls | 200 North Ave | open |
| Jimmy John's Jimmy John's | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 3161 Geer Rd | open |
| Kabob Place | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 2545 Geer Rd # 1402 | open |
| Kabob Place Mediterranean Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Middle Eastern · American | 3821 Crowell Rd | open |
| Katana Sushi Bar KATANA SUSHI | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 170 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Kung Fu Tea Kung Fu Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 2220 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| L G A Los Guisos de la Abuela | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3102 Geer Rd | open |
| La Jungla Michoacana | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 2677 Geer Rd | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2575 Geer Rd | open |
| Mango Crazy | Dessert | Dessert | 2830 Geer Rd | open |
| Mariachis Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 2669 Geer Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 2400 Geer Rd | open |
| Milano Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Mediterranean | 2830 Geer Rd | open |
| Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · American | 2410 Geer Rd | open |
| Nothing Bundt Cakes | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Dessert | 2922 Geer Rd | open |
| Olde Tyme Pastries | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 2225 Geer Rd | open |
| Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2926 Geer Road | open |
| Patogh Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 130 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Perkos Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3191 Geer Rd | open | |
| Pho Americana | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 3821 Crowell Rd | open |
| Pizza Factory | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1050 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3181 Geer Rd | open |
| Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's | Quick service | open | ||
| Quickly | Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies | 2014 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2650 Geer Rd | open |
| Rs Investigations Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2685 Geer Rd | open | |
| Saffron Pastries + Market | Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery | Juice / smoothies · Bakery | 3807 Crowell Rd | open |
| Season Tickets Sports Pub & Deli | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 170 W Monte Vista Ave | open | |
| See's Candies See's Candies | Dessert | Dessert | 2962 Geer Rd | open |
| Shooters | Casual dining · Bar | 225 Hope Ct | open | |
| Smith's Dead and Breakfast | Bar | Breakfast | 2521 E Tuolumne Rd | open |
| Snow and Dough | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | CA-99-BR, Turlock, CA 95382, United States | open | |
| Sourdough & Co. Sourdough & Co. Modesto H Street | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1203 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 1100 W Monte Vista Ave | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 3000 Geer Rd | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 1 University Cir | open |
| Subway | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2884 Geer Rd | open | |
| Sunrise Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 2610 Geer Rd | open |
| Sunshine Donuts | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 2681 Geer Rd #1100 | open |
| Sweet River | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2600 Geer Rd | open |
| Table 26 Table 26 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 2600 Geer Rd | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 2700 Geer Rd | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 3606 N Golden State Blvd. | open |
| Tacos California | Food truck | Mexican | 3100 Geer Rd | open |
| Tandoori Pizza - Turlock Tandoori pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Indian | 3181 Geer Rd | open |
| Taqueria La Pequeña | Quick service · Food truck | Mexican | 2305 N Walnut Rd | open |
| Terracotta Poke Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian | 3831 Crowell Rd | open |
| The Happy Taco - El Taco Alegre | Food truck | Mexican | 2313 N Walnut Rd | open |
| The Rail Bar & Lounge | Bar | 2321 W Main St C | open | |
| Togo's Sandwiches TOGO'S Sandwiches | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 2313 Geer Rd | open |
| Toscana's Ristorante | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 1801 Colorado Ave Ste 190 | open |
| Tower Restaurant Lp | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1801 Colorado Ave Ste 190 | open | |
| TRND Foods | Quick service | American · Burgers | 4240 N Golden State Blvd | open |
| Vitality Bowls | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Healthy / salads / bowls | 2585 Geer Rd | open |
| Vito's Ristorante & Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 3851 Crowell Rd | open |
| Walmart Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 2480 Geer Rd | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2395 Geer Rd | open |
| Wetzel's Pretzels Wetzel's Pretzels | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 3051 Geer Rd | open |
| Wingstop Wingstop | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 3102 Geer Rd Unit 103 | open |
| Yogurt Mill Yogurt Mill | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 2591 Geer Rd | open |
| Zalata | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Healthy / salads / bowls | 2679 Geer Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 12 | 12 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 16 | 15 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 18 | 17 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 20 | 18 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 28 | 25 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 29 | 24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 31 | 26 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 31 | 26 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 27 | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 32 | 28 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 30 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 33 | 30 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 35 | 31 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 40 | 35 | 13 | 12 | 9 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 42 | 37 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 38 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 7 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 35 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 6 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 38 | 35 | 17 | 9 | 7 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 45 | 37 | 19 | 9 | 7 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 44 | 36 | 17 | 10 | 7 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 51 | 41 | 22 | 10 | 7 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 49 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 60 | 51 | 24 | 15 | 10 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 60 | 51 | 24 | 19 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 59 | 50 | 23 | 20 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 62 | 51 | 23 | 20 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 66 | 49 | 19 | 20 | 8 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 63 | 48 | 19 | 20 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 66 | 52 | 17 | 28 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 65 | 50 | 15 | 29 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |