BMIE Market 95368

Stanislaus County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,379 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,286 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±442 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,614 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,159 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$94,935 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,905 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,081 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±220 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$461,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,374 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95368
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.44) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95368. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.44, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.5	76	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.7	76	35%	+26.5
Market Momentum Score	47.2	47	25%	+11.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,900	75	40%	+30.2
Median household income (ACS)	94,935	77	40%	+31.0
Households (ACS)	4,286	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.6	78	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	13,900	75	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	94,935	77	20%	+15.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	50%	+10.2
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	71.4	75	20%	+15.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Mexican 14 · American 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Bakery 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 8 · Food truck 5 · Bakery 4 · Bar 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aguililla Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4525 Broadway Ave	open
Bakedrn	Bakery	Bakery	Salida	open
Bamboo House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4525 Broadway Ave	open
Blaze Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4925 Sisk Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4612 Kiernan Ave	open
Del Taco	Quick service		4300 Salida Blvd.	open
El Mexicano Taco Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American	4601 Broadway Ave	open
Golden Bowl Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4925 Sisk Rd #H	open
Huckleberry's Huckleberry's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4642 Kiernan Ave	open
Ice House Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	4000 Wind Meadow Ln	open
Joe’s 2 Go - Yakamein	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		4305 Wincanton Way	open
La Casa De Esther	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4925 Sisk Rd	open
La Espiga De Oro	Bakery	Bakery · Mexican	4960 Curtis St	open
La Hacienda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	4520 Broadway Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	4925 Sisk Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4230 Salida Blvd	open
Nature's Candy Company	Dessert	Dessert	5398 Pirrone Rd	open
Old Mystic Brewing	Brewery / taproom			open
Pizza Blast	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	4525 Broadway Ave, # A	open
Salida Auto Wrecking	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5127 Kiernan Ave	open
Salida Club	Bar		4907 Elm St	open
Salida Donuts	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	4520 Broadway Ave B	open
Salida's Country Kitchen	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	4702 Broadway	open
San Oak Transportation, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5600 Pirrone Rd	open
Sinaloense Mariscos & Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	4820 Salida Blvd	open
Solid Beer Works	Brewery / taproom · Bar		5680 Pirrone Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4601 Broadway Ave.	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4925 Sisk Rd Suite E	open
Tacos El Hidalguense	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4546 Salida Blvd	open
Tacos El Hidalguense	Quick service	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	4698 Broadway Ave	open
Tacos El Mexicano	Quick service · Food truck	Mexican	4506 Curtis St	open
Tacos El Paisa #1	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5007 Morgan St	open
Tapped Apple Cider	Bar · Casual dining	Spanish / tapas	5648 Pirrone Rd	open
Tequileros Taqueria Tequileros Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4925 Sisk Rd Ste J	open
The Meltdown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4324 Salida Blvd	open
Tony's Tacos	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5015 Curtis St	open
Tony's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4554 Broadway Ave	open
Vintage Deli, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5301 Pirrone Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	7	1	4	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	—	4	3	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	7	—	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	—	5	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	—	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	1	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	6	4	1	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	6	4	—	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	—	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	8	5	—	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	1	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95368. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95356	2.9 mi	79	2023
95366	4.1 mi	39	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.