BMIE Market 95409

Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,616 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,434 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,444 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	27,187 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,983 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,867 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,420 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,448 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$802,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,301 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95409
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+130.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	27 (range 23–31) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95409. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.1	86	40%	+34.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.3	71	35%	+24.9
Market Momentum Score	71.0	71	25%	+17.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,616	86	40%	+34.3
Median household income (ACS)	107,867	86	40%	+34.2
Households (ACS)	11,444	88	20%	+17.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	35%	+20.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.7	66	25%	+16.4
Population (ACS)	25,616	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	107,867	86	20%	+17.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	30%	+17.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (69)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · American 7 · Pizza 7 · Asian 5 · Bakery 5 · Burgers 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · Breakfast 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Chinese 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Bar 13 · Winery / distillery / taproom 13 · Café 8 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alpicella Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Quick service		1551 Holst Ln	open
Annadel Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		125 Cristo Ln	open
Ausiello's Homeslice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	5755 Mountain Hawk Dr ste102	open
Baird House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		920 Baird Rd	open
Basilico Cucina Italiana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	4776 Sonoma Hwy	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	130 Calistoga Rd	open
Betty's Fish and Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food	4046 Sonoma Hwy #4128	open
Boiling Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	500 Mission Blvd	open
Borolo's Gourmet Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	500 Mission Blvd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	56 Mission Cir	open
Burtech Family Vineyard Tasting Room - Sonoma	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6705 Cristo Ln	open
Chai's Gourmet	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5755 Mountain Hawk Dr	open
China Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	138B Calistoga Rd	open
Cielito Lindo Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	52 Mission Cir	open
Colleen's Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5755 Mountain Hawk Dr	open
Diva Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	52 Mission Cir	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		138A Calistoga Rd	open
El Fogon Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6576 OAKMONT Dr	open
Everest Indian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	104 Calistoga Rd	open
Fiorino's Lounge	Bar		585 Montecito Center	open
Flipside Burgers & Wings - Rincon Valley	Bar	American · Burgers	138 Calistoga Rd	open
Fresh By Lisa Hemenway	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5755 Mountain Hawk Dr	open
Fruta Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	52 Mission Cir	open
Hey Misstir Bar & Grill	Bar		52 Mission Cir Ste 111	open
J. Cage Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		6705 Cristo Ln	open
Jeffrey's Hillside Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	2901 4th St	open
Kick Ranch	Winery / distillery / taproom		4903 Harville Rd	open
Lakeside Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		138 Calistoga Rd	open
Lakeside Grill at Spring Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	393 Violetti Rd	open
Ledson Winery & Vineyards Ledson Winery & Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7335 CA-12	open
Los Molcajetes Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6599 Montecito Blvd # 110	open
Maritana Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		6705 Cristo Ln	open
McDonald's Mission Plaza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6374 Meadowridge Dr	open
Mei-Don Chinese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	6576 Oakmont Dr	open
Moongate Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		120 Hoff Rd	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4501 Montgomery Dr	open
Oakmont Golf Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7035 Oakmont Dr	open
Oakmont Village Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6550 Oakmont Dr	open
Ozzie's Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	799 Montecito Center	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Delivery-focused · Bakery	Pizza · Bakery	140 Calistoga Road	open
Phyllis' Giant Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4910 Sonoma Hwy	open
Pink Bucket Brewing	Brewery / taproom		317 Hansbery Way	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Pythian House Cottage	Winery / distillery / taproom		1001 Pythian Rd	open
Ricky's Eastbound	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5755 Mountain Hawk Dr	open
Rincon Valley Tap Room & Bottle Shop	Bar		4927 Sonoma Hwy	open
Round Table Pizza Round Table Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	550 Montecito Center	open
Running Rabbit Ranch/Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Santa Rosa Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	500 Mission Blvd Unit b	open
Sonoma Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	52 Mission Cir	open
St. Francis Winery St. Francis Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Pythian Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	4620 CA-12	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	100 Calistoga Rd	open
Su Casa Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	108 Calistoga Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	4501 SONOMA HWY	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	124-B Calistoga Road	open
Sugarloaf Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6705 Cristo Ln	open
Sunday Brunch @ The Flamingo	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Breakfast	2777 4th St	open
Tan's Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	754 Montecito Ctr	open
Taqueria Santa Rosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	791 Montecito Center	open
The Bird Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		4776 Sonoma Hwy	open
Union Hotel Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	280 Mission Blvd	open
Urban Pizza Company, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		500 Mission Blvd	open
Wine Country Cafe & Deli	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Coffee · Sandwiches		open
Wine Country Cafe & Deli	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	5855 Sonoma Hwy	open
Wooden Petal Pretzel Parlor	Bakery	Bakery	4984 Sonoma Hwy	open
Yoakim Bridge Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Yogurt Time Yogurt Time	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	6599 Montecito Blvd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	100 Calistoga Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	20	18	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	19	17	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	21	16	8	5	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	22	15	7	4	4	2	NAICS1997
2000	22	17	9	5	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	21	17	6	7	4	1	NAICS1997
2002	19	18	6	7	5	1	NAICS1997
2003	24	20	9	8	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	24	21	9	7	5	—	NAICS2002
2005	22	21	9	7	5	—	NAICS2002
2006	21	18	9	5	4	1	NAICS2002
2007	25	22	11	6	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	27	24	12	7	5	1	NAICS2007
2009	25	22	13	5	4	1	NAICS2007
2010	25	22	11	6	5	1	NAICS2007
2011	25	22	11	6	5	2	NAICS2007
2012	27	24	12	9	3	2	NAICS2012
2013	28	26	14	9	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	28	26	16	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	30	28	16	9	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	29	27	16	9	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	28	25	13	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	30	26	14	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	29	25	13	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	31	25	13	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	35	28	16	7	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	39	30	18	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95409. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95452	3.6 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.