BMIE Market 95452
Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 1,762 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±721 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 620 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±185 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 1,393 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 760 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $118,986 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±48,446 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 35.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $948,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±92,134 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 16.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95452 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 28.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +33.3% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 2 (range 1–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.25) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95452. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.25, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 61.1 | 61 | 40% | +24.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 42.0 | 42 | 35% | +14.7 |
| Market Momentum Score | 48.3 | 48 | 25% | +12.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 1,762 | 42 | 40% | +16.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 118,986 | 90 | 40% | +36.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 620 | 41 | 20% | +8.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -25 | 12 | 35% | +4.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 17.0 | 46 | 25% | +11.5 |
| Population (ACS) | 1,762 | 42 | 20% | +8.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 118,986 | 90 | 20% | +18.0 |
Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 33.3 | 85 | 50% | +42.5 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -25 | 12 | 30% | +3.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -25 | 12 | 20% | +2.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (38)
By cuisine
American 4 · Italian 3 · Breakfast 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1
By type
Winery / distillery / taproom 26 · Bar 13 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arroba Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 10200 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| B Wise Vineyard & Cellar Tasting Room | Bar | 9077 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Baker Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 200 Lawndale Rd | open | |
| Cafe Citti | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9049 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Chateau St. Jean Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8555 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Deerfield Ranch Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 10200 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| En Garde Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 9077 Sonoma Hwy Ste A | open | |
| Fathia Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar | Juice / smoothies | 8910 Sonoma Hwy #11B | open |
| Golden Bear Station | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 8445 Sonoma Hwy | open |
| Hamilton Family Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 8860 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Kenwood Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 9592 CA-12 | open | |
| Kunde Estate Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 9825 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| La Rochelle Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 233 Adobe Canyon Rd | open | |
| Landmark Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 101 Adobe Canyon Rd | open | |
| MacLaren Wine | Winery / distillery / taproom | 211 Adobe Canyon Rd | open | |
| Mayo Family Winery Reserve Room Mayo Family Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 9200 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Muscardini Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 9380 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Naked Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8450 CA-12 | open | |
| Ordaz Family Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 50 Adobe Canyon Rd | open | |
| Orpheus Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8910 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Palo Alto Vineyard Management | Winery / distillery / taproom | 50 Adobe Canyon Rd | open | |
| Palooza Brewery & Gastropub | Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar | 8910 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Palooza Catering And Events Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 8910 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Paradise Ridge Winery - Kenwood Estate Tasting Room & Art Gallery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8860 Sonoma Highway | open | |
| Pillowfight Coffee | Café · Coffee shop | Coffee · Breakfast | 8910 Sonoma Hwy Suite B12 | open |
| Salt & Stone | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 9900 Sonoma Hwy | open |
| Séamus Wines | Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom | 8910 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Spann Vineyards Tasting Room | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 8910 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| SPK | Café · Coffee shop | Coffee · Breakfast | 8445 Sonoma Hwy | open |
| St Francis Winery & Vineyards, Winery Admin | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 8450 CA-12 | open | |
| St. Anne's Crossing | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8450 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Stella | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 9049 Sonoma Hwy | open |
| Tips Roadside | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck | American | 8445 Sonoma Hwy | open |
| Vaughn Duffy Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8910 Sonoma Hwy Ste 10 b | open | |
| Vineyards Inn Grill & Bar | Winery / distillery / taproom | 8445 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Vjb Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Italian | 60 Shaw Ave | open |
| Wine Truffle Boutique | Dessert | Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 60 Shaw Ave | open |
| Zapata Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 9255 Sonoma Hwy | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 4 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 3 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 4 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |