BMIE Market 95442
Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 3,449 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±809 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 1,642 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±409 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 3,178 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 1,750 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $164,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±61,878 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 58.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,743 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±207 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $1,328,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±156,537 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 25.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95442 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 28.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 4 (range 2–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.66) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95442. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.66, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 72.3 | 72 | 40% | +28.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 45.6 | 46 | 35% | +16.0 |
| Market Momentum Score | 24.4 | 24 | 25% | +6.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 3,449 | 55 | 40% | +21.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 164,750 | 97 | 40% | +39.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 1,642 | 58 | 20% | +11.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -25 | 12 | 35% | +4.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 17.4 | 44 | 25% | +11.1 |
| Population (ACS) | 3,449 | 55 | 20% | +10.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 164,750 | 97 | 20% | +19.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -14.3 | 16 | 50% | +7.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -25 | 12 | 30% | +3.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 50 | 65 | 20% | +13.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (68)
By cuisine
American 7 · Coffee 3 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1
By type
Winery / distillery / taproom 50 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bar 13 · Café 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2050 Forever | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2050 Trinity Rd | open | |
| Abbot's Passage Winery and Mercantile | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 777 Madrone Rd | open | |
| Arrowood Vineyards & Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 14347 CA-12 | open | |
| Ashton Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12000 Henno Rd | open | |
| Atwood Ranch Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 12099 Hwy 12 | open | |
| Audelssa Estate Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 13750 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Aventine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 14301 Arnold Dr | open |
| B.r. Cohn Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 15000 Hwy 12 | open | |
| Bedrock Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 776 Madrone Rd | open | |
| Beltane Ranch | Winery / distillery / taproom | 11775 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Benziger Family Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1883 London Ranch Rd | open | |
| Birdland Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5599 Bennett Valley Ln | open | |
| Black Dog Ranch/Beresini Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 14300 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Bucklin Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 8 Old Hill Ranch Rd | open | |
| Cafe 108 | Café · Dessert · Coffee shop | Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1651 Warm Springs Rd | open |
| Cassata | Sonoma | Winery / distillery / taproom | 11250 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Cellar Cat Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 14301 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Coturri Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | PO Box 396 | open | |
| En Garde Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Eric Ross Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 14300 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Flour & Bloom Cakes | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 14301 Arnold Dr Unit 1C | open | |
| Garden Court Cafe | Café | Coffee · Breakfast · American | 13647 Arnold Dr | open |
| Glen Ellen Star | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 13648 Arnold Dr | open |
| GlenLyon Vineyards and Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2750 John Hill Rd | open | |
| Grand Scheme Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 14301 Arnold Dr Suite 1A | open | |
| Imagery Estate Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 14335 Hwy 12 | open | |
| Kivel Stadt Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom | 13750 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Korbin Kameron Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5420 Cavedale Rd | open | |
| Lasseter Family Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 1 Vintage Ln | open | |
| Laurel Glen Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 13750 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Les Pascals | Bakery · Café | Bakery · French · Coffee | 13758 Arnold Dr | open |
| Little Vineyards Family Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 15188 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Lonchera Emely | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | Dunbar Rd @ Highway 12 | open |
| London Lodge Saloon | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 13740 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Lookout Ridge Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3877 Trinity Rd | open | |
| Loxton Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom | 11466 Dunbar Rd | open | |
| Madrone Estate Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 777 Madrone Rd | open | |
| Mayo Family Winery Mayo Family Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 13101 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Montecillo Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2256 Nelligan Rd | open | |
| Moselland Cat Bottle Riesling | Bar | 13716 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Mountain Terraces Winery and Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 3030 Cavedale Rd | open | |
| Muscardini cellars, Kenwood, CA | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Passaggio Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom | In Jack London Village, 14301 Arnold Dr Ste 1 | open | |
| Pickberry Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5321 Enterprise Rd | open | |
| Quintessa | Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom | 2207 Morningside Mountain Dr | open | |
| Random Ridge | Winery / distillery / taproom | 4346 Cavedale Rd | open | |
| Repris winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Schermeister Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 14301 Arnold Dr Studio 28 | open | |
| Sky Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 4352 Cavedale Rd | open | |
| Songbird Parlour | Restaurant (service type not stated) | European · American | 14301 Arnold Dr | open |
| Sonoma Mountain Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 6725 Enterprise Rd | open | |
| Stone Edge Farm Estate Vineyards and Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5303 Cavedale Rd | open | |
| Talisman Wine | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 13651 Arnold Dr | open | |
| the fig cafe & winebar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 13690 Arnold Dr | open |
| The Mill at Glen Ellen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | American | 14301 Arnold Dr | open |
| Topophilia Wine Co | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 14301 Arnold Dr | open | |
| Trestle Glen Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 15085 Trestle Glen Dr | open | |
| Tri Tip Trolley | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | POB 1959 | open |
| Two Amigos Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 2750 Johns, Hill Rd | open | |
| Valley of the Moon Wines | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | open | ||
| Villa Montebella | Winery / distillery / taproom | 4377 Warm Springs Rd | open | |
| VJB | Winery / distillery / taproom | 11009 Sonoma Hwy | open | |
| Wellington Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom | 11600 Dunbar Rd | open | |
| Wine Country Chocolates | Dessert | Dessert | 14301 Arnold Dr | open |
| Wine Snob | Winery / distillery / taproom | 969 Carquinez Ave | open | |
| Wolf House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · American | 13740 Arnold Dr | open |
| Wolf Run Vineyards | Winery / distillery / taproom | 12550 Wolf Run | open | |
| Yeti Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 14301 Arnold Dr | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 6 | 6 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 9 | 9 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 12 | 11 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 6 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 5 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 9 | 8 | 7 | — | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 7 | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 8 | 8 | 8 | — | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 10 | 8 | 8 | — | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 10 | 9 | 8 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 9 | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 10 | 6 | 6 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 10 | 7 | 6 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 10 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 9 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 8 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 9 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 9 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |