BMIE Market 95436

Sonoma County, California · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,821 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±845 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,354 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,418 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,995 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$109,531 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,642 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,937 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±190 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$739,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±80,896 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 95436
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+80.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 95436. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. California and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,558, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.4	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.9	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	36.9	37	25%	+9.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,821	63	40%	+25.2
Median household income (ACS)	109,531	86	40%	+34.5
Households (ACS)	2,354	64	20%	+12.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.5	51	25%	+12.8
Population (ACS)	5,821	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	109,531	86	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 3 · Italian 3 · Bakery 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 19 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 6 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arista Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		8781 Martinelli Rd	open
Backyard	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6566 Front St	open
Bazaar Sonoma (BaSo/巴索/バソ)	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	6492 Mirabel Rd	open
Brew - Forestville	Café	Coffee	6566 Front St	open
Canneti Roadhouse Italiana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	6675 Front St	open
Carr's Drive In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	6533 Covey Rd	open
Chester. wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		5700 Hwy 116	open
Corks Restaurant	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5700 Hwy 116	open
Crinella Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		6525 1st St	open
Elaine Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		9233 Carols View Ln	open
Emtu Estate Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		6111 Van Keppel Rd	open
Enriquez Estate Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		5960 Eastside Rd	open
Forestville Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6490 Mirabel Rd	open
Giusti Ranch	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7750 Giusti Rd	open
Hartford Family Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		8075 Martinelli Rd	open
Jigar Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		6615 Front St	open
Joseph Jewell Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		6542 Front St	open
Joseph Swan Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		2916 Laguna Rd	open
Kistler Vineyards Kistler Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		7095 Trenton Healdsburg Rd	open
Nightingale Breads	Bakery	Bakery	6665 Front St	open
Purple Pachyderm Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5425 CA-116	open
Rainy Day Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	6492 Mirabel Rd	open
Red's Full Throttle Coffee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10665 River Rd	open
Reuling Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		8600 Templeman Rd	open
Roasters Espresso Bar	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6656 Front St	open
Russian River Pub	Bar · Casual dining	American	11829 River Rd	open
Ryme Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6450 1st St	open
Simply Lotus Teas	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	Rio vista rd, Forestville, California	open
Snapdragon Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	6641 Center St	open
Sonoma Pizza Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6615 Front St	open
Tahoe Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6492 Mirabel Rd	open
Tiny Town Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	6544 Front St	open
Trombetta Family Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		129 Nolan Ct	open
Twist Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6536 Front St	open
V Sattui Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7211 Covey Rd	open
Wind Gap Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6450 1st St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	4	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	4	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	8	5	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	7	1	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	7	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	5	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	13	6	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	10	3	3	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 95436. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
95444	4.2 mi	3	2023
95471	4.8 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.