BMIE Market 96786

Honolulu County, Hawaii · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	40,658 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,989 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±656 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	40,859 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,842 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$85,554 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,886 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	28.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,787 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±112 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$807,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,989 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	89.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	42 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 96786
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+2.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+10.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+27.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	44 (range 40–48) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	53 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 96786. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Hawaii and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 78, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.3	83	40%	+33.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.5	68	35%	+24.0
Market Momentum Score	52.9	53	25%	+13.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	40,658	94	40%	+37.7
Median household income (ACS)	85,554	69	40%	+27.5
Households (ACS)	12,989	91	20%	+18.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	35%	+18.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.3	71	25%	+17.7
Population (ACS)	40,658	94	20%	+18.8
Median household income (ACS)	85,554	69	20%	+13.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	2.4	59	50%	+29.4
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	30%	+15.6
20-year restaurant growth	10.5	40	20%	+8.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (115)

By cuisine

American 19 · Asian 15 · Bakery 15 · Coffee 13 · BBQ 9 · Pizza 9 · Dessert 6 · Hawaiian / Pacific 6 · Mexican 6 · Chinese 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Burgers 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Japanese 4 · Korean 4 · Sushi 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Filipino 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Italian 2 · Seafood 2 · Vietnamese 2 · Brazilian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Indian 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 68 · Quick service 24 · Bakery 15 · Dessert 13 · Café 12 · Casual dining 10 · Bar 9 · Coffee shop 9 · Juice, smoothie, tea 8 · Food truck 6 · Specialty food shop 4 · Fast casual 2 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2 Moms Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian	126 N Cane St	open
Aloha Alfajores	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	52 Mango Pl	open
Aloha Korean BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · BBQ	935 California Ave	open
Aloha Salads Mililani	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Quick service	Healthy / salads / bowls	95 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Barrio Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Latin American (other)	672 Kilani Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	823 California Ave	open
Bentos 2 Love	Restaurant (service type not stated)		40 N Kamehameha Hwy	open
Beyond Boba Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	64 Kukui St	open
Black Sheep Cream Co	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	43 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Black Sheep Juice Co S	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Juice / smoothies	694 McCornack Rd	open
Bostons North End Pizza Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Bakery	1718 Wilikina Dr	open
Brewkinis	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1718 Wilikina Dr	open
Cane Street Cafe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	140 N Cane St	open
Caribbean Flava	Food truck		650 Wilikina Dr	open
Ceviche House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other)	1718 Wilikina Dr	open
Charmaine's Moa Betta Cookies	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	519 California Ave	open
Chicken In A Barrel BBQ Wahiawa Chicken in a Barrel BBQ South Lake Tahoe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Chicken / wings · American	167 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Chuck E. Cheese's Chuck E. Cheese Guatemala	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	Kamehameha Hwy	open
Clubhouse Lounge	Bar		93 N Kam Hwy	open
Da Burger Wing Hub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	93 N Kam Hwy Ste 102	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	211 Hiwi Pl	open
Dong Yang Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian	546 Olive Ave	open
Dot's Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	130 Mango St	open
Drive Thru Joe Drive Thru Joe	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	361 Waianae Ave	open
El Jalisciense 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	650 Wilikina Dr	open
El Palenque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	177 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
For Goodness Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	268 Abbott St Unit 102	open
Fukuya Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		71 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Golden Coin BakeShop and Restaurant Golden Coin Food Industries	Bakery · Quick service	Filipino · Bakery	661 Kilani Ave	open
Great Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	543 California Ave	open
Green World Farms	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	71-101 N Kamehameha Hwy	open
Grilled corn	Food truck	BBQ	1550 Kamehameha Hwy	open
Guieb Cafe	Café	Coffee	538 California Ave	open
Happy Chefs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Seafood · Asian	198 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Hawaii Pot Shabu Shabu House Hawaii Pot Shabu Shabu House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Chinese · Asian	554 Olive Ave	open
Homegrown Brew	Coffee shop · Quick service · Food truck	Coffee	505 Avocado St	open
Island Bubble Drinks	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café · Bar	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee		open
Islander Drive Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Hawaiian / Pacific	935 California Ave # B14	open
J P Spaghetti	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	935 California Ave Ste A11	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		11 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Jax Snax	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		670 California Ave	open
Jimmy's Lakeside Bakery Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1718 Wilikina Dr	open
Jrs Jamaican Jerk Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	93 N Kamehameha Hwy Ste 102	open
Kabana Grill \| Brazilian Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Brazilian · Latin American (other) · BBQ	1680 Wilikina Dr	open
Keiki Corner Shave Ice	Dessert		935 California Ave	open
Kemo'o Farms Pub and Grill	Bar · Casual dining		1718 Wilikina Dr	open
Keo's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	500 Center St Bldg 3	open
Kilani Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	704 Kilani Ave	open
Kitchen Delight	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Chinese · Asian	25 Mango St	open
Koa Pancake House Koa Pancake House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Hawaiian / Pacific · American	703 California Ave	open
L&L Hawaiian Barbecue L&L Hawaiian BBQ - Vancouver	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	BBQ · American · Hawaiian / Pacific	138 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
La Casita Blanca Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		650 Wilikina Dr	open
Lacoy's Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		650 Wilikina Dr	open
Lightning Strike Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	563 Kolekole Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	93 Kamehameha Hwy	open
Mae's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Building 3 Center St	open
Maharaja's Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Indian	410 California Ave	open
Malai Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	935 California Ave	open
Mango Street Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	130 Mango St	open
Maui Mike's Fire-Roasted Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · BBQ	96 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	114 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Merlina's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · Asian	1203 Whitmore Ave	open
Military Deli & Bakery Services	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	698 Trimble Rd	open
Molly's BBQ & Seafood - Wahiawa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	23 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Moore's Soul Food Kitchen	Food truck	Cajun, Creole, Southern	650 Wilikina Dr	open
Nelly's Tacos Mexicanos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	207 N Cane St Apt 8	open
Ohana Sub Wahiawa	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	55 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Old Town Pizzeria & Tap House	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Omar's Bar & Grill, Hair Care and Tire Center	Casual dining · Bar			open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	609 California Avenue	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	153 s kamehameha hwy	open
Petite Sweets	Dessert	Dessert	43 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Pho King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	823 California Ave	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	823 California Ave	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	694 McCornack Rd	open
Plantation grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Hawaiian / Pacific	64-1550 Kamehameha Hwy	open
Pua Cake Studio Hawaii	Dessert	Dessert	71 S Kamehameha Hwy Ste C	open
Ribs & Broth	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	BBQ · American	935 California Ave	open
Sakura Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	94 Mahele Loop	open
Seoul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · American	823 California Ave	open
Shige's Saimin Stand	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Asian	70 Kukui St	open
Signature Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1718 Wilikina Dr #7	open
Sub Shack	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	78 Wilikina Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	823 California Ave Suite B	open
Subway - Schofield PX Food Court	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Neff St	open
Sunbeams Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	712 California Ave	open
Sunnyside	Bakery	American · Bakery	1017 Kilani Ave	open
Sunset Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	23 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Surfers Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	63 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Sushiman Wahiawa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	823 California Ave	open
Sweet Abi Co.	Bakery	Bakery		open
Sweet and Spoiled	Bakery	Bakery	360 Eena Rd	open
T's Sweets LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	948 McCornack Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	146 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Tamura's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Asian	440 Kilani Ave	open
Tanya's Pies and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1008 California Ave #102A	open
Taqueria El Ranchero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	823 California Ave	open
Teapresso Bar Wahiawa	Dessert · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	834 Kilani Ave #104	open
Teddy's Bigger Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	153-B S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	650 California Ave	open
The Hangar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1735 Wright Ave	open
The Nutty Hawaiian, Llc.	Dessert		64-1550 Kamehameha Hwy	open
The Turn at Stella's Restaurant & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		Hawaii Country Club, 94 Kona Rd	open
These Stuffed Cookies	Bakery	Bakery	935 California Ave	open
Timeless Fondness	Café		166 Rose St	open
Uber Factory	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	71 S Kamehameha Hwy	open
Uncle's NY Deli, Pizza, Pasta & Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza · Italian	1718 Wilikina Dr	open
Waikele	Café · Quick service	Coffee		open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	30 South Kamehameha Hwy	open
Whitmore Snow	Dessert		1045 Aheahe Ave	open
Wok & Grill Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	823 California Ave # F2	open
Wow Wow Hawaiian Lemonade	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	43 Kamehameha	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	698 Trimble Rd	open
Zippy's Wahiawa Zippy's	Quick service · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Bakery · American	100 N Kamehameha Hwy	open
Lum's Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		674 Kilani Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	40	33	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1995	34	28	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	44	38	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	45	41	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	42	36	10	24	2	4	NAICS1997
1999	39	33	9	22	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	40	34	9	23	2	3	NAICS1997
2001	37	31	8	21	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	41	35	7	26	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	45	38	9	26	2	5	NAICS2002
2004	47	39	9	27	2	6	NAICS2002
2005	44	38	9	26	2	4	NAICS2002
2006	47	39	9	28	2	5	NAICS2002
2007	44	36	9	26	1	5	NAICS2002
2008	48	40	7	32	1	5	NAICS2007
2009	45	38	7	29	2	4	NAICS2007
2010	45	37	8	28	1	4	NAICS2007
2011	46	38	9	28	1	4	NAICS2007
2012	49	39	8	28	3	4	NAICS2012
2013	46	39	9	27	3	3	NAICS2012
2014	41	34	8	25	1	3	NAICS2012
2015	45	37	8	27	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	45	37	8	27	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	46	39	10	27	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	46	41	8	30	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	43	37	10	23	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	43	37	10	25	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	44	40	10	28	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	47	42	8	29	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	47	42	8	29	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 96786. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
96857	3.9 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.