BMIE Market 97306

Marion County, Oregon · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	34,383 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,850 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,744 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±696 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	27,360 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,448 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,753 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,956 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,592 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±100 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$463,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,925 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 97306
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+61.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+52.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+81.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+383.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 20–32) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.40) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 97306. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.40, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Oregon and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 349, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.7	88	40%	+35.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.0	84	35%	+29.4
Market Momentum Score	87.1	87	25%	+21.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	34,383	91	40%	+36.5
Median household income (ACS)	101,753	82	40%	+32.8
Households (ACS)	13,744	92	20%	+18.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	52.6	85	35%	+29.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.4	79	25%	+19.7
Population (ACS)	34,383	91	20%	+18.3
Median household income (ACS)	101,753	82	20%	+16.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	61.1	92	50%	+46.3
10-year restaurant growth	52.6	85	30%	+25.4
20-year restaurant growth	81.3	77	20%	+15.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (76)

By cuisine

American 16 · Coffee 13 · Pizza 8 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 3 · Breakfast 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Mexican 3 · BBQ 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Indian 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Thai 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Caribbean 1 · Filipino 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Quick service 16 · Bar 13 · Food truck 13 · Café 11 · Casual dining 9 · Coffee shop 9 · Winery / distillery / taproom 8 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
19th At Battle Creek Clubhouse	Bar	American · British / Irish pub food	5765 Commercial St SE	open
Ankeny Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom	Pizza	2565 Riverside Rd S	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5070 Commercial St SE	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	4990 Commercial St Se Commercial St Se & Boone Rd Se	open
B2 Taphouse & Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1170 Boone Rd SE	open
Beehive Bobablastic	Quick service		5669 Commercial St SE	open
Beehive Station	Food truck · Bar		1510 Fabry Rd SE S	open
Black Bear Diner Black Bear Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	5005 Commercial St SE	open
Blackjack's	Bar		5249 Commercial St SE	open
Bobablastic	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Tea / bubble tea	5669 Commercial St SE	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	5145 Commercial St SE	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	1450 BAXTER RD SE	open
Cherry City Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	2560 Kuebler Blvd SE	open
Cindy Lou's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	5669 Commercial St SE	open
Coffee Craft Co	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	5780 Commercial St SE	open
Coria Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		8182 Liberty Rd S	open
Coria Estates	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		8252 Redstone Ave SE	open
Crumbl - South Salem Crumbl Cookies	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	2520 Kuebler Blvd SE Ste 150 Ste 150	open
Dalias Taqueria	Food truck	Mexican	1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
Dan Guajardo 55	Coffee shop	Coffee	Salem	open
Dede's	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies	5757 Commercial St SE #106	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5680 Commercial St Se	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1350 Barnes Ave SE	open
Figaro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5399 Commercial St SE	open
Foodology Mobile Kitchen	Food truck		5669 Commercial St SE	open
Haven Gaming	Café	Coffee	5008 Commercial St SE	open
I-Jive Espresso	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2411 Delaney Rd SE	open
In-Fusion	Quick service · Food truck		8684 Jackson Hill Rd SE	open
Kabuli Flavor Restaurant	Food truck	Halal / kosher · Middle Eastern	1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
KBW Mediterranean Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · American	5669 Commercial St SE	open
Killer Burger Killer Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	2540 Kuebler Blvd Ste 150	open
Lanxang Lao Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	5080 Commercial St SE	open
Lit'l Bites	Food truck		1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5757 Commercial St SE #101	open
Little India (Punjabi Dhaba)	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
Lottie's Pad Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	Commercial St SE	open
Maya Maya Pacific Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino	5080 Commercial St Se Ste 140	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	5090 Commercial St Se	open
NW Smash & Burger Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
One In A Melon Meals	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
Osaka Hibachi On Wheels	Food truck	Japanese · Asian	1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
Padington's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	5255 Commercial St SE	open
Peace Love Pretzels	Food truck		1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
Pizza Now Pizza Now	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5399 Commercial St SE	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5503-Commercial St SE	open
Primetime Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza	5070 Commercial St Se Ste 120	open
Ricos Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5780 Commercial St SE	open
Rudy's Greenside	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	6250 Club House Dr SE	open
Running Deer Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3855 Riverside Dr S	open
Salem Hills Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		7934 Skyline Rd S	open
Salem, OR (Barnes) Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1350 Barnes Ave SE	open
Sammie's Pub and Lotto South	Bar · Casual dining		5080 Commercial St SE	open
Sass Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		9092 Jackson Hill Rd SE	open
SÅ«co Cafe Express	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	5669 Commercial St SE	open
Shari's Cafe and Pies	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Breakfast · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	5005 Commercial St SE	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	2520 Kuebler Blvd Se	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	5660 Commercial St SE	open
Streetzzas	Food truck · Casual dining	American · Pizza	5683 Commercial St SE	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5250 Commercial St SE	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5765 Commercial Street	open
Sweet Peony Flour Shop	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1814 Rees Hill Rd SE	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5795 Commercial St SE	open
Taj Indian Grocery & Sweets	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	5040 Commercial St SE	open
Taste of Jamaica	Food truck	Caribbean	1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
The Amadeus Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5121 Skyline Village Loop S	open
The Easy Otter	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
The Hungry Gnomad	Food truck	Sandwiches · American	1510 Fabry Rd SE	open
The Stonefront	Casual dining · Bar		5690 Commercial St SE	open
Ticket to Play Board Game Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	5008 Commercial St SE	open
Toast and Jam	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Café	Coffee · American	5080 Commercial St SE #140	open
Trinity Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1031 Wahl Ln S	open
Vitae Springs Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3535 Vitae Springs Rd S	open
Well House Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2411 Delaney Rd SE	open
Willamette Valley Smokehouse	Food truck	BBQ · American	2411 Delaney Rd SE	open
~South Salem~	Quick service		1180 Barnes Ave SE	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	6	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	6	3	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	—	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	17	16	6	10	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	13	3	8	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	19	16	6	9	1	3	NAICS2002
2004	19	16	6	8	2	3	NAICS2002
2005	16	13	4	8	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	3	10	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	19	14	3	9	2	4	NAICS2002
2008	22	19	6	11	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	19	16	6	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	18	15	5	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	19	17	6	9	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	18	15	5	8	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	22	19	8	9	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	21	17	6	10	1	3	NAICS2012
2015	20	16	4	11	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	20	16	4	11	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	23	16	3	11	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	26	18	4	11	3	6	NAICS2017
2019	27	19	6	10	3	5	NAICS2017
2020	27	19	7	10	—	5	NAICS2017
2021	29	19	8	9	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	30	19	4	13	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	41	29	8	17	4	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 97306. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
97351	2.6 mi	21	2023
97302	4.4 mi	109	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.