BMIE Market 97317

Marion County, Oregon · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,966 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,769 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,640 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±579 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,355 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,142 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,393 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,372 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,436 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$402,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,074 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	55.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 97317
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+53.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,900.0% DERIVED: 2005 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	27 (range 24–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	75 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 97317. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Oregon and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 349, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.8	81	35%	+28.3
Market Momentum Score	74.9	75	25%	+18.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,966	86	40%	+34.4
Median household income (ACS)	84,393	67	40%	+27.0
Households (ACS)	8,640	83	20%	+16.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	53.9	85	35%	+29.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.7	82	25%	+20.4
Population (ACS)	25,966	86	20%	+17.2
Median household income (ACS)	84,393	67	20%	+13.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 75 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	11.1	69	50%	+43.1
10-year restaurant growth	53.9	85	30%	+31.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

American 6 · Asian 6 · Coffee 6 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Thai 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 7 · Quick service 7 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Bakery 3 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
22 Below	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Tea / bubble tea · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4155 Rickey St SE #126	open
B G L Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6075 State St	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	851 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1280 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Burgerville Burgerville	Quick service		220 Lancaster Drive Southeast	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	1135 Lancaster Dr SE	open
China Buffet	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	2407 Lancaster Dr NE	open
Dude Donut City	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	3997 Carson Dr SE Ste 110	open
Dude Donut City	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Dessert · Coffee	3997 Carson Dr SE	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	810 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Fuego Mexican Grill	Quick service		5102 State St	open
Hibachi hut salem	Food truck	Japanese · Asian	165 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Hooked On Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5701 Gaffin Rd SE	open
J & D, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4157 Rickey St Se Ste 110	open
Java Crew	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3659 Kashmir Way SE	open
Java Roma	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1291 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1080 Lancaster Dr Se	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		1570 Witaker Dr	open
Las Palomas	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1126 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	100 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Lucky Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4157 Rickey St SE	open
MacLeay Country Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	8362 Macleay Rd SE	open
Michelangelo's	Bar	Italian · Pizza	520 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Miller's Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1420 70th Ave SE	open
Nomi's Lonchera	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3795 Hagers Grove Rd SE	open
Pudding River Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		9374 Sunnyview Rd NE	open
Ritz Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	135 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Salem, OR (S. Lancaster) Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	810 Lancaster Dr. S.E.	open
Sanae Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	4155 Rickey St SE	open
Shari's Cafe and Pies	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Dessert · Coffee	1270 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Silverback Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		11374 Sunnyview Rd NE	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1122 Lancaster Dr SE, Suite B	open
Sushi Kyo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	4155 Rickey St SE #112	open
Tacos Dari	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3997 Carson Dr SE	open
Thai Beer Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1130 Lancaster Dr SE	open
The Free Loader	Casual dining · Bar		501 Lancaster Dr SE	open
The Pink Elephant Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		115 Lancaster Dr SE	open
The Silver Dollar Tavern	Bar	American	375 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Tiki Lounge Lancaster	Bar		165 Lancaster Dr SE	open
Travis Memorial Dining Hall - Corban University	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5000 Deer Park Dr SE Corban University	open
Tripp Dog Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5875 Gaffin Rd SE	open
Walina Farm and Floral	Bakery	Bakery	6361 Walina Ct SE	open
Willamette Valley AVA	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Winner Circle Bar	Bar		3997 Carson Dr SE	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2005	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	2	—	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	12	7	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	16	13	8	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	10	7	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	18	13	8	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	17	11	8	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	19	14	9	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	21	16	10	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	21	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	18	10	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	17	10	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	19	10	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	29	21	10	7	4	4	NAICS2017
2022	29	23	11	8	4	3	NAICS2022
2023	29	20	11	6	3	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 97317. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
97310	3.8 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.