BMIE Market 98249

Island County, Washington · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,198 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±499 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,180 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±224 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,561 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,097 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$99,519 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,637 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	58.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,566 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±382 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$627,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±67,419 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 98249
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+11.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	23 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 98249. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Washington and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 484, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.7	68	40%	+27.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.4	41	35%	+14.5
Market Momentum Score	23.4	23	25%	+5.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,198	58	40%	+23.0
Median household income (ACS)	99,519	81	40%	+32.3
Households (ACS)	2,180	62	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.8	29	25%	+7.2
Population (ACS)	4,198	58	20%	+11.5
Median household income (ACS)	99,519	81	20%	+16.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	50%	+9.7
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	11.1	40	20%	+8.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Mexican 4 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
China City China City Whidbey Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1804 Scott Rd	open
Crab 'N Go	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	18205 WA-525	open
Dancing Fish Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1953 Newman Rd	open
Freeland Cafe	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	1642 E Main St	open
Freeland Freeze	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1594 Main St	open
Greenbank Cidery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		5488 Freeland Ave	open
Hierophant Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5586 Double Bluff Rd	open
IC Teriyaki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	1806 Newman Rd	open
Island Mexican Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5444 Cameron Rd	open
Jupiter Coffee	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	5490 Cameron Rd	open
Leo & Leto's Winery and Bistro	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5511 S Freeland Ave	open
Petosa Roasta BBQ	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1806 Newman Rd	open
Reasonably Gordon's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Mexican	5488 Freeland Ave	open
Rocket Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1594 Main St	open
Southern Cross Too	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1802 Newman Rd	open
Taquería Los Cantaritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1860 Scott Rd	open
The Barnyard	Food truck		5488 Freeland Ave	open
Thrive Vegan Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1594 Main St	open
Whidbey Coffee Whidbey Coffee	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	1609 E Main St	open
Whidbey Island Ice Cream	Dessert	Dessert	1594 Main St	open
WiFire Community Space	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	1651 E Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	7	1	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	5	1	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	5	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	4	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	5	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	4	3	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	4	3	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	4	1	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	3	3	5	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	4	3	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	11	4	3	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	10	3	3	4	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	10	2	3	5	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	3	3	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	12	6	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	5	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	7	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	7	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	7	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	7	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	6	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 98249. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
98260	4.4 mi	20	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.