BMIE Market 98260

Island County, Washington · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,320 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±543 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,546 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,278 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,285 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,987 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,822 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	63.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,385 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±646 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$678,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42,059 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 98260
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+122.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+122.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 19–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.85) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	90 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 98260. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.85, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Washington and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 484, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.4	70	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.5	66	35%	+22.9
Market Momentum Score	90.2	90	25%	+22.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,320	61	40%	+24.6
Median household income (ACS)	101,987	82	40%	+32.9
Households (ACS)	2,546	65	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	122.2	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	37.6	14	25%	+3.6
Population (ACS)	5,320	61	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	101,987	82	20%	+16.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42.9	88	50%	+44.1
10-year restaurant growth	122.2	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (46)

By cuisine

Coffee 13 · American 11 · Breakfast 5 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Pizza 3 · French 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Burgers 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 10 · Café 10 · Coffee shop 9 · Casual dining 7 · Dessert 5 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Bakery 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Acorn Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	5417 Crawford Rd	open
Anthes Ferment	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	138 2ND ST L	open
Coffee at Dawn Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	5331 S Crawford Rd	open
Comforts of Whidbey Winery and B&B	Winery / distillery / taproom		5219 View Rd	open
Double Bluff Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		121 Second Street	open
Driftwood Hard Cider Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5881 Maxwelton Rd	open
El Corral Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5826 Kramer Rd	open
Flower House Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	2780 Marshview Ave	open
Geri's Snack Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	2860 Howard Rd	open
Ikaika Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	121 Second Street	open
Jet Java Jet Java Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5988 Langley Rd	open
Joe's Wood Fired Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2815 Howard Rd	open
Langley Kitchen	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	138 Second Street	open
Merriweather Creperie Cafe	Casual dining · Café	Japanese · Breakfast · Sushi · French · Coffee · American	5603 Bayview Rd	open
Misfit Island Cider Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		221 Second Street Bldg 13	open
Mukilteo Coffee Roasters & Mercantile	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3228 Lake Leo Wy	open
Orchard Kitchen - Whidbey Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5574 Bayview Rd	open
OSM Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	2812 Thompson Rd	open
Ott and Hunter Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		204 1st St	open
Portico Latin Bistro & Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	220 1st St	open
Prima Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	201 1/2 1st St	open
Saltwater Fish House & Oyster Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	113 1st St	open
Salty Sea Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	111 Anthes Ave	open
Savory	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	220 1st St	open
South Whidbey Commons	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	124 Second Street	open
Sprinklz Ice Cream Parlor and Coffee Shop	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	224 1st St	open
Spyhop	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	317 Second Street	open
Sweet Mona's Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	Sweet Mona's, 221 Second Street #16	open
Taproom@Bayview Corner	Casual dining · Bar		5603 Bayview Rd	open
The Braeburn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	197 Second Street	open
The Dog House Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	Hot dogs · American	230 1st St	open
The Gander Café	Café	Coffee	14485 State Route 525	open
The Langley Sidebar	Bar		107 1st St Unit A	open
The Scallywagon	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	819 Camano Ave	open
Third Place Ent. Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		317 2nd St	open
Tonic Juice & Remedy	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	221 Second Street	open
Ultra House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	221 2nd St	open
Ulysses Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	111 Anthes Ave	open
Useless Bay Coffee Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	121 Second Street	open
Village Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	106 1st St	open
Whidbey Doughnuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Casual dining · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Breakfast · American	5603 Bayview Rd	open
Whidbey Island Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3466 Craw Rd	open
Whidbey Island Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2158 Millman Rd	open
Whidbey Island Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5237 Langley Rd	open
Whidbey Pies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	111 Anthes Ave	open
Wica	Bar		565 Camano Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	6	—	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	14	9	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	9	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	10	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	9	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	14	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	15	8	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	20	10	5	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	20	12	3	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 98260. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
98249	4.4 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.