BMIE Market 01450

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,356 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±70 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,697 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±215 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,646 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,989 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$193,292 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,810 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,473 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±379 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$743,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46,491 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01450
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+70.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+54.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+70.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 19–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01450. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.6	83	40%	+33.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78.3	78	35%	+27.4
Market Momentum Score	75.9	76	25%	+19.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,356	73	40%	+29.1
Median household income (ACS)	193,292	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	3,697	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	70	88	35%	+30.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.2
Population (ACS)	11,356	73	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	193,292	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.3	71	50%	+35.7
10-year restaurant growth	70	88	30%	+26.4
20-year restaurant growth	54.6	69	20%	+13.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · American 5 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Quick service 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blackbird Cafe Blackbird Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	491 Main St	open
Bliss Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	134 Main St	open
Bruno's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	195 Main St	open
Cafe at Groton Wellness	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	493 Main St	open
Deven's Pizza & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	220 W Main St	open
DolceAmar	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	497 Main St	open
Dr Davis Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	68 Hollis St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	133 Main Street Groton Center	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	318 Main St The Groton Exchange	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	788 Boston Rd	open
Evans Energy Wellness Cafe Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		493 Main St	open
Filho's Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	235 Main St	open
Forge & Vine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	128 Main St	open
Gibbet Hill Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	61 Lowell Rd	open
Groton House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Greek	129 Main St	open
Groton Publick House	Casual dining · Bar		94 Lovers Ln	open
Hollis Street Nutrition	Café	Coffee	30 Hollis St	open
Johnson's Restaurant and Dairy Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	164 Boston Rd	open
Kari & Rob’s Enchanted Tiki Bar	Bar		474 Lost Lake Dr	open
Main House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai · Chinese	495 Main St	open
Salt & Light Cafe Bakery	Coffee shop · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · BBQ	159 Main St	open
Tequila's Mexican Cantina Tequila’s Mexican Cantina- Wakefield	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	765 Boston Rd	open
The Herb Lyceum at Gilson's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	368 Main St	open
Tully Farms Scoop Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	30B Hollis St	open
Webber Restaurant Development, Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		61 Lowell Rd	open
Webber Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		61 Lowell Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	14	10	2	5	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	14	10	2	5	3	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	10	3	4	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	16	11	4	4	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	15	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	15	5	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	16	5	7	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	13	4	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	17	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	11	3	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	2	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	12	3	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	15	4	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	18	6	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	16	4	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	17	5	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	23	18	6	7	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	22	17	6	5	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01450. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01432	3.2 mi	16	2023
01463	4.5 mi	10	2023
01464	4.7 mi	8	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.