BMIE Market 01451
Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 5,487 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±151 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 1,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 4,747 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 1,824 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $214,792 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37,391 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,250 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±733 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $856,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54,805 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 21.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01451 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 10.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 5 (range 3–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 44 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01451. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 76.5 | 77 | 40% | +30.6 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 67 | 67 | 35% | +23.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 44.4 | 44 | 25% | +11.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 5,487 | 62 | 40% | +24.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 214,792 | 99 | 40% | +39.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 1,900 | 60 | 20% | +12.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 35% | +12.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 5.5 | 90 | 25% | +22.5 |
| Population (ACS) | 5,487 | 62 | 20% | +12.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 214,792 | 99 | 20% | +19.8 |
Market Momentum Score: 44 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 0 | 35 | 30% | +10.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 50 | 65 | 20% | +13.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (16)
By cuisine
Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Quick service 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baskin-Robbins | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 188 Ayer Rd | open |
| Catalano Management Co., Llc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 188 Ayer Rd | open | |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 188 Ayer Rd | open |
| Fruitlands Restaurant Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 285 Ayer Rd | open | |
| Harvard Camera Ctr | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1 Still River Rd | open | |
| Loyal Foe Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 177 Mass Ave | open | |
| Nashoba Valley Donuts, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 188 Ayer Rd | open | |
| Nashville Cml, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 188 Ayer Rd | open | |
| Pizza Bella | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 231 Ayer Rd | open |
| Route 40, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 188 Ayer Rd | open | |
| Siam Pepper Thai Cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Thai · Noodles / ramen / pho | 325 Ayer Rd | open |
| Sorrento's Pizzeria Sorrento Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 285 Ayer Rd | open |
| Still River Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 104 Bolton Rd | open | |
| The Cider Barn | Winery / distillery / taproom | Pizza | 115 Oak Hill Rd | open |
| The Willow Tree | Bar | 21 Littleton Rd | open | |
| Joe Beck | Bakery | Bakery | 249 Ayer Rd Ste 306 | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 4 | 4 | 2 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 3 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 4 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 4 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 5 | 4 | — | 3 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |