BMIE Market 01536

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,860 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±654 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,874 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±267 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,888 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,794 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$115,938 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,152 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,293 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±575 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$470,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,464 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01536
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-13.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+62.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	55 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01536. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.9	75	40%	+30.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.1	53	35%	+18.6
Market Momentum Score	55.3	55	25%	+13.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,860	65	40%	+26.1
Median household income (ACS)	115,938	89	40%	+35.6
Households (ACS)	2,874	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.0	40	25%	+10.0
Population (ACS)	6,860	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	115,938	89	20%	+17.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30	83	50%	+41.6
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-13.3	16	20%	+3.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 4 · Breakfast 4 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Art Bradish Snack Bar	Food truck · Quick service	Hot dogs	39 Shrewsbury St	open
Best In Show Hot Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	80 Worcester St	open
Bread Guy Breads Llc	Bakery	Bakery	204 Worcester St	open
Cancun's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	75 Worcester St	open
Danielle’s Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		215 Worcester St	open
Dimitria Delights Baking Co	Bakery	Bakery	81 Creeper Hill Rd	open
Donut Star	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Breakfast	204 Worcester St	open
Elms Café & Catering	Café · Catering	Coffee · Breakfast	5 Jumbo's Path	open
Evie's Cakes and Candies	Bakery	Bakery	217 Worcester St	open
Firehouse_Dogs	Food truck		80 Worcester St	open
Grafton Food Service Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		92 Worcester St	open
Grafton Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	10 Bridge St	open
Grafton Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	204 Worcester St	open
Hustle Hub Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	198 Worcester St	open
King Jade 2（Grafton）	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	78 Worcester St	open
lakeview house of Pizza inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	78 WORCESTER, Unit 4	open
Li Jian Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		78 Worcester St	open
Neko's of New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	135 Westboro Rd	open
Pearl Cafe Grafton	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	198 Worcester St	open
Pepperoni Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Breakfast · Italian	78 Worcester St	open
Post Office Pub Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining	American	1 Ray St	open
Reunion Tap & Table	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		198 Worcester St	open
Sunflower Shanty	Bar		95 Wesson St	open
Swirls & Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	68 Worcester St	open
Taqueria Acapulcos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	135 Westboro Rd	open
Val's Corner Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	79 Worcester St	open
Holy Cow Creamery Llc	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	135 Westboro Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	15	14	8	3	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	13	7	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	14	13	7	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	16	15	10	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	19	16	8	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	19	15	7	6	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	16	13	5	5	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	14	6	4	4	2	NAICS2002
2006	15	12	5	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	6	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	18	15	6	7	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	16	14	5	7	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	5	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	14	5	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	4	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	8	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01536. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01519	2.0 mi	7	2023
01545	3.9 mi	59	2023
01560	4.0 mi	3	2018
01604	4.1 mi	100	2023
01581	4.8 mi	64	2023
01607	4.9 mi	15	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.