BMIE Market 01590

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,422 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,396 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,875 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,360 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$147,015 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,761 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,211 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±488 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$523,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±47,196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01590
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+125.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01590. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.0	80	40%	+32.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.1	76	35%	+26.7
Market Momentum Score	45.8	46	25%	+11.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,422	70	40%	+28.0
Median household income (ACS)	147,015	96	40%	+38.3
Households (ACS)	3,396	69	20%	+13.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	35%	+24.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.6	74	25%	+18.5
Population (ACS)	9,422	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	147,015	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	30%	+21.0
20-year restaurant growth	80	77	20%	+15.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Japanese 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Quick service 2 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blackstone’s Country Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4 Worcester Providence Tpke	open
Brickstone Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4 Worcester-Providence Turnpike	open
Dunkin'	Bakery	Bakery	27 Worcester Providence Tpke	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	Xtra Mart Gas Station, 27 Worcester-Providence Turnpike	open
Fast Dog Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	90 Douglas Rd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	26 Galaxy Pass	open
Jim's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3 Boston Rd	open
Kp's Breakfast &amp Lunch Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10 Providence Rd	open
Pizzeria Bruno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	27C Galaxy Pass	open
Schultzy's Place	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	3 Boston Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	21 Galaxy Pass	open
The Little Coffee Bean	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	160 Worcester-Providence Turnpike	open
The National Grill	Casual dining · Bar		227 Putnam Hill Rd	open
Tony's Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	146 Boston Rd	open
Trap House	Bar	Japanese · Sushi		open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	9	3	3	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	1	3	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	3	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	5	1	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	1	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	3	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	3	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	3	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	4	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	4	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01590. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01527	4.4 mi	28	2023
01588	4.5 mi	21	2023
01560	4.9 mi	3	2018

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.