BMIE Market 01863

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,796 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±973 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,573 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±301 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,891 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,958 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$144,875 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,725 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,875 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±212 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$491,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±51,383 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01863
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01863. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.3	80	40%	+32.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.6	58	35%	+20.2
Market Momentum Score	24.9	25	25%	+6.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,796	70	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	144,875	95	40%	+38.2
Households (ACS)	3,573	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.2	71	25%	+17.9
Population (ACS)	9,796	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	144,875	95	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	42.9	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

American 4 · Pizza 4 · Italian 3 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Asian 1 · Dessert 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
BEYROOTS Mediterranean Fusion Halal	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	17 Vinal Square	open
Brick House Pizza North	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	67 Middlesex St	open
China Mountain Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	39 Tyngsboro Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	81 Tyngsboro Rd Gulf Gas Station	open
Glenview Pub & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	248 Princeton St	open
Kastore Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Pizza	100 Tyngsboro Rd	open
Princeton Station	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		147 Princeton St	open
Rosie's Diner Rosie's Diner Aurora	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	27 Vinal Square	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	21 Drum Hill Rd 300	open
Szechuan Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6 Vinal Sq	open
Tequila's Mexican Grill and Cantina Tequila’s Mexican Cantina- Wakefield	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	6 Vinal Sq	open
The Establishment	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian · American	75 Princeton St	open
Veneto Ristorante & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	17 Vinal Sq	open
Zesty's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10 Vinal Square	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	6	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01863. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01854	2.8 mi	30	2023
01879	3.0 mi	26	2023
01851	3.1 mi	46	2023
01824	3.5 mi	58	2023
01886	3.8 mi	44	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.