BMIE Market 02638

Barnstable County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,253 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±527 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,440 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±171 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,207 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,130 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,726 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,000 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	60.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,208 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±439 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$827,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±93,566 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02638
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	34.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 13–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.41) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02638. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.41, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.9	67	40%	+26.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.2	51	35%	+17.9
Market Momentum Score	59.9	60	25%	+15.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,253	53	40%	+21.4
Median household income (ACS)	108,726	86	40%	+34.4
Households (ACS)	1,440	56	20%	+11.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	35%	+20.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	46.1	11	25%	+2.7
Population (ACS)	3,253	53	20%	+10.7
Median household income (ACS)	108,726	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.4	73	50%	+36.7
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	30%	+17.7
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 9 · Seafood 7 · Coffee 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Dessert 6 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 2 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Dennis Family Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36 Hope Ln	open
Arc-Aquacultural Research	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	99 Chapin Beach Rd	open
Baleine	Bar		776 Main St	open
Cape Cod Creamery Cape Cod Creamery	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	716 Main St	open
Captain Frosty's	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Ice cream / frozen desserts	219 Main St	open
Center Stage Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36 Hope Ln	open
Chapin's Bayside	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	85 Taunton Ave	open
Contrast Bistro and Espresso Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		605 Main St	open
Dunkin Dunkin' Pakistan	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	927 Main St	open
Encore Bistro and Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Seafood	36 Hope Ln	open
Fin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	800 Main St	open
Firestarter Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	593 Main St	open
Gina's by the Sea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	134 Taunton Ave	open
H & A Associates, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		778 Main St	open
Harvest Gallery Wine Bar	Bar		776 Main St	open
Ice Cream Smuggler	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	716 Main St	open
Ladids Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		780 Main St	open
Mercantile	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	778 Main St	open
Nancy's Candy etc	Dessert		Main St.	open
Pecorino Romano	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	605 Main St	open
Red Nun Bar & Grill Dennis Port	Restaurant (service type not stated)		673 Main St	open
Scargo Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	799 Main St	open
Sesuit Harbor Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	357 Sesuit Neck Rd	open
Sesuit Harbor Cafe-Dennis	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	357 Setucket Rd	open
Seven Days Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	593 Main St	open
Showtime Pizza Pasta & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	614 Main St	open
Summer Stock	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36 Hope Ln	open
The Eagles Nest Restaurant	Bar	American	825 Old Bass River Rd	open
The Mercantile	Other	Sandwiches	778 Main St	open
The Pheasant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	905 Main St	open
Underground Bakery	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	780 Main St #6a	open
Village Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	667 Main Street	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	14	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	15	14	7	4	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	7	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	16	10	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	15	10	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02638. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02675	2.5 mi	11	2023
02660	2.6 mi	16	2023
02641	2.7 mi	4	2023
02664	3.8 mi	29	2023
02637	4.2 mi	1	2006

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.