BMIE Market 02646

Barnstable County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,846 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±424 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	957 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,676 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,621 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$81,172 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,525 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	59.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,282 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$896,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±130,852 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02646
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	101.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+15.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+29.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 21–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02646. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.5	53	40%	+21.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.0	43	35%	+15.1
Market Momentum Score	65.9	66	25%	+16.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,846	43	40%	+17.3
Median household income (ACS)	81,172	64	40%	+25.5
Households (ACS)	957	49	20%	+9.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15.8	59	35%	+20.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	119.2	3	25%	+0.8
Population (ACS)	1,846	43	20%	+8.7
Median household income (ACS)	81,172	64	20%	+12.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.2	79	50%	+39.5
10-year restaurant growth	15.8	59	30%	+17.8
20-year restaurant growth	15.8	43	20%	+8.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

American 9 · Dessert 6 · Coffee 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Pizza 3 · Seafood 3 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Sushi 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 8 · Dessert 8 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Monkeys	Bar	Japanese · Sushi	554 MA-28	open
554 Street Bar Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		554 Route 28	open
820 Main Gallery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		820 Route 28	open
A&W Restaurant	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	297 Rte 28	open
Beach Way Sweet Shop	Dessert	Dessert	537 Route 28	open
Blm Restaurant Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		429 Route 28	open
Bonatt's Bakery & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	537 Route 28	open
Brax Landing Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	705 Route 28	open
Cape Roots Market	Café	Coffee	557 MA-28	open
Cape Sea Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	31 Sea St	open
Capeside Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		537 Route 28	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	441 Main St (Rte, 28	open
Dockside Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	715A MA-28	open
Dockside Seafood Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	715A Route 28	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	481 RT-28	open
Ember Coal Fire Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	600 Route 28	open
George's Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	564 Route 28	open
Harwich Port House of Pizza	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1702, 330 MA-28	open
Hot Stove Saloon	Bar · Casual dining		551 Route 28	open
Hot Stove, Inc.-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		551 Route 28	open
J. Bar Harwichport	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Coffee	537 MA-28	open
Jake Rooney's	Casual dining · Bar	American	119 Brooks Rd	open
LAlouette Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	BBQ · American	787 Route 28	open
Mooncussers Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		86 Sisson Rd	open
Perks Coffee Shop & Beer Garden	Coffee shop · Café · Bar	Coffee	545 MA-28	open
Say It Sweetly	Dessert	Dessert	560A Route 28	open
Schoolhouse Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	749 Route 28	open
Scribano's Italian Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	302 MA-28	open
Seagulls Ice Cream & Soda Fountain	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	537 Route 28	open
Snack Shack at Saquatucket	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Sundae School Ice Cream Sundae School	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	606 Main St #28	open
Sweet Izzy	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	296 MA-28	open
The Mad Minnow	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		554 Route 28	open
The Mason Jar	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	544 Route 28	open
The Port Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	541 MA-28	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	18 Sisson Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	16	16	7	8	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	16	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	17	17	9	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	18	18	9	6	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	20	19	9	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	19	18	10	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	21	20	11	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	20	19	10	6	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	20	20	10	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	19	9	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	17	9	4	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	17	17	9	4	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	19	10	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	19	11	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	18	9	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	18	10	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	17	9	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	19	11	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	21	11	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	20	10	5	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	23	22	13	5	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	22	22	15	4	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02646. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02671	2.0 mi	5	2023
02645	2.2 mi	18	2023
02659	2.6 mi	4	2023
02639	3.4 mi	31	2023
02633	4.9 mi	28	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.